Los Angeles Dodgers vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 28, 2026

FINAL+1TEX

LAD

6-2

TEX

5-5

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

8,448 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.7medium

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.3± 1.2high
Mookie BettsLAD
1.3± 1.0high
Tommy EdmanLAD
1.2± 1.5low

Total bases

Mookie BettsLAD
2.4± 2.5high
Freddie FreemanLAD
2.0± 1.9high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Jake BurgerTEX
0.9± 1.1high
Mookie BettsLAD
0.8± 1.0high
Max MuncyLAD
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Chris PaddackTEX
3.1± 2.4low
Emmet SheehanLAD
2.7± 1.8medium
Roki SasakiLAD
2.7± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

TEX

.787

OPS

◀

.718

.712

.346

OBP

◀

.319

.320

5.32

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.07

3.44

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.95

1.12

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.24

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

LAD 6 · TEX 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	1	6
TEX	0	0	0	1	2	3	1	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CallLF	.500	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. TuckerRF	.143	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Espinal3B	.545	2	1	2	0	0	1	0
D. RushingC	.214	3	2	2	2	1	0	1
A. PagesCF	.462	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. Freeland2B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Senzel3B	.308	1	1	1	2	1	2	0
R. WardLF	.118	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. EhrhardOF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. NewellCF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. ZavalaC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Gelof3B	.333	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
N. QuirozC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. QuinteroCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. IzarraSS	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. GauthierSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Nevin3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. SirotaCF	1.000	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		37	6	11	6	4	5	10

Player

.500

.143

.545

.214

.462

.250

.308

.118

.333

.200

.000

.333

.000

.000

.333

.000

.000

1.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FerrisSP	1.2	1	0	0	1	1	--
C. CrowellRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
C. IrvinRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	2	--
W. KleinRP	1.0	2	2	0	0	2	--
C. DuranSP	0.2	3	3	3	1	2	--
A. KnowlesRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
G. McDanielsRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	--
A. KellyRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
Team	8.0	10	7	5	3	8	0

Player

1.2

0.1

2.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CarterCF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
W. LangfordLF	.333	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. PedersonDH	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. JansenC	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. HaggertyLF	.636	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
E. DuranSS	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. CanhaLF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. Wade2B	.615	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. Bride3B	.308	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
A. OsunaLF	.154	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
H. OsorioCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. JonesLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Pratto1B	.182	3	1	2	1	0	0	1
C. JohnsonC	.182	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. ZavalaLF	.400	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
F. Chavez2B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. TorresRF	.250	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. VelazquezSS	.133	2	1	1	2	0	0	0
R. MartinSS	.412	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	7	10	7	1	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LeiterSP	1.1	3	2	2	2	1	--
J. BrandRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	--
C. BaumlerRP	1.2	2	0	0	1	1	--
B. AndersonRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	--
M. OtanezRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	--
L. CurveloRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
J. TrentadueSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
D. PenceP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	--
D. AckerRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	--
Team	9.0	11	6	6	5	10	0

Team

LAD

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs LAD.