Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 28, 2026

FINAL+6SD

SEA

3-5-1

4-5

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

9,211 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.2± 3.1medium

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.1± 0.7high
Samad TaylorSD
1.1± 1.2high
Julio RodriguezSEA
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Ty FranceSD
2.0± 3.4high
Manny MachadoSD
1.9± 2.7high
Cole YoungSEA
1.8± 2.8high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.8± 1.8high
Manny MachadoSD
0.7± 1.6high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 2.9low
Bryan WooSEA
2.8± 3.2medium
George KirbySEA
2.8± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

.696

OPS

◀

.718

.663

.312

OBP

◀

.319

.298

4.05

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.89

3.70

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.89

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SEA 1 · SD 7 (by 6)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
SD	0	5	0	0	0	0	2	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Donovan3B	.625	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. RaleighC	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.059	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. ArozarenaLF	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. RaleyRF	.500	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
D. CanzoneDH	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Wisdom3B	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Bliss2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. EmersonSS	.308	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Wi. Wilson3B	.545	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CharpingC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. PackardOF	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FarmeloOF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JoeRF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Mastrobuoni3B	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Rodden2B	.462	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		28	1	4	1	1	1	8

Player

.625

.235

.059

.286

.500

.267

.100

.000

.308

.545

.000

.667

.250

.167

.267

.462

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. AndersonSP	1.0	3	2	2	1	3	--
H. RothSP	0.2	4	3	3	1	0	--
P. Alford1B	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
E. HancockSP	2.2	0	0	0	0	4	--
T. ClevelandUN	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
R. DobnakRP	2.0	2	2	2	0	2	--
J. DiazRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	8.0	9	7	7	2	10	0

Player

1.0

0.2

0.1

2.2

0.1

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. BogaertsSS	.167	3	1	1	2	0	0	2
J. MerrillCF	.375	2	1	2	2	1	0	0
N. CastellanosRF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. AndujarDH	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
G. Sheets1B	.125	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
F. FerminC	.250	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.273	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Miranda3B	.429	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Solak1B	.385	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
F. Acuna3B	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RodríguezRF	.385	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BowenRF	.357	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
N. SchnellRF	.200	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
R. Sanabria1B	.400	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. CampusanoC	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Castanon2B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Dungan2B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. JohnsonRF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	7	9	7	2	2	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SearsSP	3.0	3	1	1	1	1	--
J. EstradaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
M. MillerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
A. JacobRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
T. AdcockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
K. HartRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	4	1	1	1	8	0

Team

SEA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs SEA.