Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 28, 2026

FINAL+4NYY

TOR

1-6-1

NYY

7-2

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida

9,346 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYY vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.9± 3.3medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
5.9± 3.1medium

Hits

Ernie ClementTOR
1.1± 1.1high
George SpringerTOR
1.0± 0.9high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 0.9high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.1± 2.5high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.8± 2.6high
Daulton VarshoTOR
1.6± 2.6high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Amed RosarioNYY
0.6± 1.1high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

NYY

.699

OPS

.718

▶

.746

.310

OBP

.319

▶

.321

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.90

4.12

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.30

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

TOR 1 · NYY 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
NYY	0	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Jimenez3B	.273	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. BargerRF	.083	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. SchneiderLF	.100	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. JimenezDH	.400	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Keys3B	.154	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. NimmalaSS	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. McAdoo2B	.455	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. Coffey3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Latta2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Mendoza3B	.600	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
E. MichelettiRF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. ParkerC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. ClaseLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. HornungOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Doughty3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Goodwin2B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	5	0	0	3	7

Player

.273

.083

.100

.400

.500

.200

.154

.250

.455

.000

.000

.600

.333

.250

.000

.000

.000

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerriosSP	4.0	0	0	0	2	2	--
R. JenningsSP	0.2	1	2	2	3	0	--
K. SauerSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
N. GarkowP	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	--
F. PerezP	2.0	1	1	1	0	1	--
Team	8.0	4	5	5	6	3	0

Player

4.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

2.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.100	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
A. JudgeRF	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.364	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Goldschmidt1B	.500	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. WellsC	.250	2	2	1	2	1	1	1
J. CaballeroSS	.333	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
R. McMahon3B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. OrnelasSS	.222	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. JonesCF	.300	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
K. CoronaCF	.250	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
S. BrownLF	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. LucianoOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. TorresOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ShewmakeSS	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. HenryC	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MoylanUN	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Vivas3B	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		27	5	4	5	2	6	3

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BlackburnRP	4.0	4	0	0	0	2	--
D. BednarRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
F. CruzRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	0	--
T. HillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. BirdRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
H. CohenSP	1.0	0	1	0	1	2	--
Team	9.0	5	1	0	3	7	0

Team

TOR

NYY

—

3 sub-models, blended.

NYY vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYY vs TOR.