Washington Nationals vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 28, 2026

FINAL+1WSH

WSH

5-2-2

NYM

4-3-1

Clover Park · Port St. Lucie, Florida

5,962 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Christian ScottNYM
5.3± 2.9low

Hits

Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.9high
Carson BengeNYM
1.1± 0.6high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.9± 3.5high
Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.6± 0.9high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
2.8± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

NYM

.739

OPS

◀

.718

.673

.318

OBP

◀

.319

.299

5.26

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.71

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.10

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 3 · NYM 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	3
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Nunez2B	.300	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. WoodRF	.000	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
D. LileLF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. House3B	.455	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
R. Hassell IIICF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Chaparro1B	.400	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
H. FordC	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. AdamsC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. KingSS	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. MadeSS	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Brown1B	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RogersLF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. DiazSS	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. ThomasRF	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
W. Bernabel3B	.429	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. LomavitaC	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Wallace3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	3	6	3	0	3	8

Player

.300

.000

.000

.455

.200

.400

.200

.000

.500

.167

.125

.200

.250

1.000

.429

.167

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. IrvinSP	3.0	1	0	0	1	4	44
C. PerezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
J. RutledgeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
C. HenryRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	22
P. SchultzRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	24
R. LoveladyRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	28
P. PoulinRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21
Team	9.0	5	2	2	5	8	152

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

152

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Semien2B	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. SotoLF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. BichetteSS	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Baty3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. AlvarezC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Vientos1B	.077	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. TauchmanRF	.400	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. TaylorCF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. MauricioSS	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Reimer3B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. MorabitoLF	.200	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. RamosCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Young1B	.250	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. RortvedtC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. RudickLF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Clifford1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Voit2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BaeCF	.200	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. JimenezSS	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	5	2	0	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MyersRP	3.0	2	1	1	1	4	46
C. KimbrelRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	25
L. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
A. AlzolayRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	21
N. BurdiRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
A. WarrenRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	12
J. GerberRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
Team	9.0	6	3	3	3	8	134

Team

WSH

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs WSH.