Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 28, 2026

FINAL+2CIN

CIN

4-3

MIL

4-5

American Family Fields of Phoenix · Phoenix, Arizona

5,773 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.9medium
Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.5± 3.8medium

Hits

William ContrerasMIL
1.2± 1.5high
Brice TurangMIL
1.1± 1.0high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.9± 1.4high
William ContrerasMIL
1.9± 2.8high
Sal StewartCIN
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high
William ContrerasMIL
0.7± 1.2high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
2.9± 3.0low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 2.0medium
Rhett LowderCIN
2.8± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

MIL

.699

OPS

.718

▶

.732

.310

OBP

.319

▶

.337

4.25

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.16

4.59

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.40

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 9 · MIL 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	1	0	0	4	0	3	1	0	0	9
MIL	4	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	7

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. McLain2B	.500	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
E. De La CruzSS	.500	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. Stewart1B	.364	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
S. SteerLF	.111	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. DunnCF	.231	2	1	1	3	0	0	0
C. Encarnacion-Strand1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MyersCF	.375	3	1	2	3	0	0	0
W. BanfieldC	.429	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. HindsRF	.429	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. BalcazarSS	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. HallSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Chavis2B	.333	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
M. Toglia1B	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. RodriguezLF	.111	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
F. Urbaez2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AllenCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Co. BurnsC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	9	10	9	2	1	10

Player

.273

.500

.500

.364

.111

.231

C. Encarnacion-Strand1B

.000

.375

.429

.429

.500

.000

.333

.222

.111

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. GreeneSP	1.0	5	4	4	1	0	--
J. GarciaRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
P. JohnsonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	--
C. FergusonRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
L. RichardsonRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	--
A. MisiewiczRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	--
H. DannerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
D. McCaughanRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	--
D. DanielSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
Team	9.0	17	7	7	3	12	0

Player

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. FrelickRF	.300	1	1	1	0	0	2	0
J. ChourioLF	.222	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
W. ContrerasC	.214	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
B. Turang2B	.333	2	2	1	1	0	1	0
A. Vaughn1B	.429	3	0	3	1	0	0	0
G. SanchezC	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. OrtizSS	.412	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. PerkinsCF	.375	3	0	2	2	0	0	1
D. Hamilton3B	.267	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
L. LaraCF	.313	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
G. JonesLF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. DickinsonSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. PenaSS	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Jon Adams3B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. McGuireC	.125	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. MadeSS	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. LeonardSS	.429	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Fischer3B	.200	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		40	7	17	6	1	3	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CrowSP	2.0	1	1	1	0	1	--
A. ZerpaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. BrocaRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	--
R. ZastryznyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. KoenigRP	0.1	3	4	4	1	1	--
S. PeraltaRP	1.0	3	3	3	0	1	--
J. CorbettRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	--
B. FitzpatrickRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
M. ManfrediRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
Team	9.0	10	9	9	1	10	0

Team

CIN

MIL

3 sub-models, blended.

MIL vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

MIL vs CIN.