St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 28, 2026

FINAL+8STL

STL

5-3

102

MIA

3-5

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

3,766 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.5± 3.3low
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.3± 0.8high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.8high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.2± 2.1high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.3high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.6± 0.5high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 2.9medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Eury PerezMIA
2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

MIA

.717

OPS

.718

.716

.324

OBP

.319

.324

4.47

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.34

4.26

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.98

1.35

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

7.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 10 · MIA 2 (by 8)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	6	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	10
MIA	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WinnSS	.250	2	2	2	0	0	1	0
V. Scott IICF	.200	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
A. Burleson1B	.286	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. Wetherholt2B	.375	2	1	2	3	0	1	0
J. WalkerRF	.273	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. CrooksC	.375	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
C. Prieto3B	.167	4	1	2	2	1	0	1
Jo. BáezRF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. TorresLF	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Moore2B	.182	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. DavisCF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Gurevitch1B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Je. BaezSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. KoperniakLF	.167	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. TarlowC	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Mendoza2B	.364	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
C. McGee3B	.600	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
M. AnticoCF	.167	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		42	10	18	10	1	3	11

Player

.250

.200

.286

.375

.273

.375

.167

.250

.200

.182

.333

.200

.000

.167

.250

.364

.600

.167

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. McGreevySP	2.1	3	1	1	1	2	58
D. SaladinSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
M. WatsonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	6
R. StanekRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	8
M. SvansonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	13
G. GraceffoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	21
P. NaughtonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
M. RajcicRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	1	30
Team	9.0	6	2	2	2	8	154

Player

2.1

0.1

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

Team

9.0

154

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. LopezSS	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
O. CaissieRF	.111	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. RuizRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. HicksC	.444	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. De Los Santos1B	.375	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SernaSS	.273	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. Jasso1B	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. JonesCF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. PintarCF	.429	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
C. HernándezSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MackC	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. O'DonnellCF	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CannarellaOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. LewisOF	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JohnsonSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Berry1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. HostetlerC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Snyder3B	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	6	2	1	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. PerezSP	1.2	6	4	4	1	2	41
J. SmithSP	0.1	3	2	2	1	0	11
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	8
C. FaucherRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	25
C. GibsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
L. BacharRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
T. ZuberRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	12
P. MonteverdeSP	2.0	4	2	2	0	1	38
Team	9.0	18	10	10	3	11	159

Team

STL

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs STL.