Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 28, 2026

FINAL+13KC

4-4-1

163

COL

6-3

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

7,654 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

COL vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.5medium
Michael WachaKC
4.9± 2.3medium
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.3± 2.0medium

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.4± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.4± 0.5high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.5± 2.2high
Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.3± 4.0high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.7high
Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Sean SullivanCOL
4.0± 4.5low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

COL

.707

OPS

.718

▶

.741

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.325

4.20

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.64

4.83

Team ERA

◀

4.17

5.53

1.43

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.51

7.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 16 · COL 3 (by 13)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	5	0	0	3	1	2	0	5	0	16
COL	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Witt Jr.SS	.400	2	2	0	0	0	2	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.462	1	2	1	0	0	3	0
S. PerezC	.214	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. ThomasCF	.286	4	1	2	5	0	0	1
M. Massey2B	.538	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
B. Drury2B	.143	2	2	1	0	0	2	1
N. Loftin2B	.214	2	1	1	4	1	1	0
K. Newman3B	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. BlancoCF	.400	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
T. Tolbert2B	.222	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
G. CrossRF	.300	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
E. MarreroC	.222	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
C. RoccaforteCF	.143	1	2	0	0	0	1	0
C. KaiserSS	.333	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. SquiresOF	.500	2	1	1	3	1	0	1
R. RamírezC	.200	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
A. Toro1B	.167	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. RaveRF	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		37	16	13	16	2	15	5

Player

.400

.462

.214

.286

.538

.143

.214

.231

.400

.222

.300

.222

.143

.333

.500

.200

.167

.100

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. LugoSP	3.0	6	2	2	0	4	--
C. RagansSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
E. MorganRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
M. BlackRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
F. MozzicatoSP	1.0	0	1	1	3	1	--
H. OlivarezSP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	10	3	3	4	10	0

Player

3.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. Castro2B	.636	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
H. GoodmanC	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. MoniakLF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. BeckLF	.333	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
E. TovarSS	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CarriggCF	.389	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. CondonOF	.538	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
V. MachinSS	.125	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
S. ThompsonRF	.077	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Lopez2B	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. FulfordDH	.400	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. SullivanC	.500	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
T. JohnstonRF	.133	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Stevens2B	.375	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. HillRF	.667	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. CordovaC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Riggio2B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	3	10	3	2	4	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LorenzenSP	2.0	4	5	5	4	0	--
R. FeltnerSP	1.2	0	3	3	4	2	--
M. GreenRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	--
K. ThompsonRP	2.0	3	3	3	3	0	--
L. PeraltaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
S. HalvorsenRP	0.0	2	5	5	3	0	--
E. JusticeRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
Z. AgnosRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
Team	9.0	13	16	16	15	5	0

Team

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

COL vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs KC.