Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 28, 2026

FINAL+2CHW

CHW

6-4

CLE

4-5

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

4,600 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.6± 2.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.2± 2.4medium
Sean BurkeCHW
6.0± 1.6medium

Hits

Sam AntonacciCHW
1.2± 0.9high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.1± 0.9high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Miguel VargasCHW
2.2± 2.5high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.7± 1.6high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
1.6± 1.7medium

RBIs

Kyle TeelCHW
1.0± 1.7low
Jacob GonzalezCHW
0.8± 1.7high
Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.8± 1.4low

Earned runs

Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.8± 2.4medium
Sean BurkeCHW
2.5± 1.9medium
Tanner BibeeCLE
2.4± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

CLE

.739

OPS

◀

.718

.676

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.312

4.82

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.93

4.22

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.77

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 7 · CLE 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	3	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	7
CLE	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	1	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Meidroth2B	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. AntonacciLF	.308	2	3	1	1	1	0	0
M. Vargas3B	.429	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
L. Wade Jr.1B	.231	2	1	1	2	0	1	0
D. HillRF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. KelenicRF	.071	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. LeeC	.273	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
Dru BakerCF	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. Bergolla Jr.2B	.667	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
M. HoganCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Weber2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SprinkleSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. Dunn3B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Galanie1B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. TurnerC	.333	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
M. Camilletti2B	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. NishidaRF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Da. Baker2B	.750	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	7	7	5	1	6	5

Player

.231

.308

.429

.231

.250

.071

.273

.231

.667

.000

.000

.333

.200

.143

.333

.300

.000

.750

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. SmithSP	3.0	2	1	1	1	2	--
W. GonzálezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. PaezSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
A. AlbertoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
T. DavisRP	0.2	3	3	3	1	2	--
R. GowensSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
A. CoffeyRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	--
S. MurphyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	8	5	5	2	9	0

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.200	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
G. ValeraLF	.417	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Ramirez3B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Manzardo1B	.083	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. HedgesC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. JonesRF	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Brito2B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. BarstadC	.143	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Genao3B	.200	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. HalpinCF	.375	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. CesariniOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Kieboom3B	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Velazquez1B	.556	2	2	2	0	0	0	0
K. HuffC	.200	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
Y. LuisCF	.500	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
D. Frias3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. MooneySS	.500	2	0	1	2	0	0	1
Team		34	5	8	5	0	2	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BibeeSP	3.0	3	3	3	0	0	--
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	1	--
C. BrogdonRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	--
C. HoldermanRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	--
K. AllardRP	2.0	1	1	1	1	2	--
T. BurnsSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
Team	9.0	7	7	7	6	5	0

Team

CHW

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs CHW.