Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 28, 2026

FINAL+5BOS

MIN

2-7

813

BOS

5-3

JetBlue Park at Fenway South · Fort Myers, Florida

8,629 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 2.9medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Anthony SeiglerBOS
1.2± 1.1low
Brooks LeeMIN
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Brooks LeeMIN
2.0± 2.3high
Byron BuxtonMIN
2.0± 1.8high
Victor CaratiniMIN
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Willson ContrerasBOS
0.8± 1.1high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 1.9medium
Zebby MatthewsMIN
2.9± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

BOS

.734

OPS

◀

.718

.698

.321

OBP

◀

.319

.312

4.85

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.02

4.85

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.69

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

MIN 8 · BOS 13 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	4	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	8
BOS	2	1	3	2	1	0	4	0	13

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.231	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
A. RodenLF	.583	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
J. BellDH	.400	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
M. WallnerRF	.083	2	0	1	1	0	2	0
R. JeffersC	.071	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
J. OutmanCF	.273	4	1	1	1	1	0	3
K. Clemens1B	.300	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
O. ArciaSS	.167	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Urshela3B	.188	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
R. OlivarC	.167	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
K. CulpepperSS	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Sabato1B	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. JenkinsCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. CossettiC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. FedkoLF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. KreidlerCF	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Schobel2B	.143	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
K. RosarioRF	.500	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	8	13	7	1	5	9

Player

.231

.583

.400

.083

.071

.273

.300

.167

.188

.167

.273

.167

.000

.000

.125

.100

.143

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BradleySP	2.0	6	5	5	1	4	--
M. ParedesSP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	--
K. RojasRP	2.0	2	3	3	1	1	--
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
A. BandaRP	1.0	1	4	4	2	1	--
M. BowmanRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
Team	8.0	12	13	13	5	8	0

Player

2.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnthonyLF	.263	3	1	2	1	0	0	1
T. StorySS	.417	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. DuranLF	.583	2	3	2	4	2	1	0
W. Contreras1B	.364	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. Durbin3B	.300	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.385	1	2	1	1	0	1	0
C. NarvaezC	.556	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
N. EatonOF	.357	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Sogard3B	.105	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. CastroCF	.273	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. Campbell2B	.182	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ThaissC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. HickeyC	.100	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. GasperC	.444	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Ferguson2B	.429	1	1	1	4	1	0	0
B. WardCF	.333	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
V. Capra3B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
T. McDonoughOF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	13	12	12	3	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. GraySP	1.1	3	2	2	2	1	--
M. CarlsonRP	0.1	3	2	2	2	0	--
J. AllmerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
C. EarlySP	2.2	3	2	2	0	3	--
T.J. SikkemaSP	1.0	4	2	1	1	2	--
N. SongSP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	--
V. NittoliRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
Team	9.0	13	8	7	5	9	0

Team

MIN

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs MIN.