Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 27, 2026

FINAL+1TB

TOR

1-5-1

3-4

Charlotte Sports Park · Port Charlotte, Florida

4,151 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.4± 2.1medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.1± 2.5high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.0± 1.5high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium
Trey YesavageTOR
2.3± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

.699

OPS

.718

▶

.730

.310

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.52

4.12

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.78

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.20

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TOR 5 · TB 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	5
TB	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. LukesRF	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. SchneiderLF	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. BargerRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SanchezRF	.143	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
E. JimenezDH	.417	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. Jimenez3B	.333	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. StubbsC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Cowles3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Tirotta3B	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. ClaseLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Mendoza3B	.600	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Y. PinangoLF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Lantigua2B	.556	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
R. SchreckLF	.200	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. NimmalaSS	.333	1	0	1	1	0	1	0
G. PlanchartC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. KasevichSS	.444	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Keys3B	.182	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		32	5	4	3	0	4	9

Player

.111

.125

.000

.143

.417

.333

.333

.000

.100

.000

.600

.125

.556

.200

.333

.000

.444

.182

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. LauerSP	1.2	3	3	3	0	1	--
C. LarkinSP	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	--
B. FisherRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	--
M. FluhartyRP	1.0	4	1	1	0	1	--
C.J. Van EykSP	3.0	1	0	0	2	2	--
J. AlcalaRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	--
Team	8.0	12	6	6	3	5	0

Player

1.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

3.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.600	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.455	2	1	2	0	0	1	0
J. FraleyRF	.400	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Caminero3B	.417	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.333	2	1	2	2	1	0	0
C. SimpsonLF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Williamson2B	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.100	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. FeducciaC	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Morgan1B	.111	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. PerezSS	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. VellojinC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. ViladeRF	.083	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
L. Davidson1B	.200	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
H. Bush Jr.CF	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. MyersOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. BarriosSS	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Kinney2B	.111	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. FortesC	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	6	12	6	1	3	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. PepiotSP	2.0	1	1	0	2	2	--
J. WoodfordRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
J. ScholtensRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
G. CleavingerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
C. BooserRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
A. WantzRP	1.0	3	4	1	1	0	--
K. WhitleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
Team	9.0	4	5	1	4	9	0

Team

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs TOR.