New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 27, 2026

FINAL+11NYM

NYM

4-2-1

143

STL

4-3

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

4,717 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Christian ScottNYM
5.3± 2.9low

Hits

Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.9high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Carson BengeNYM
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
A.J. EwingNYM
0.6± 0.9high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.6± 0.5high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

STL

.673

OPS

.718

▶

.717

.299

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.47

4.10

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.26

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.35

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 14 · STL 3 (by 11)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	1	0	0	1	5	0	1	3	3	14
STL	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BengeRF	.400	2	2	1	0	0	0	1
J. SotoLF	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Arroyo2B	.333	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
J. Rojas3B	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
H. SengerC	.200	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
M. MelendezDH	.364	3	2	2	4	2	0	0
V. BrujanSS	.375	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. CluffSS	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. MorabitoLF	.125	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. BarnesC	.500	3	1	1	2	0	0	0
J. BaeCF	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A.J. EwingCF	.500	2	3	2	2	1	1	0
J. Reimer3B	.250	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
R. Clifford1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. ParadaC	.200	1	0	1	2	0	2	0
G. Kessinger3B	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. VillavicencioSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MosqueraLF	.250	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. PacheOF	.700	3	2	3	0	0	0	0
Team		40	14	14	13	3	9	10

Player

.400

.200

.333

.000

.200

.364

.375

.286

.125

.500

.111

.500

.250

.000

.200

.111

.200

.250

.700

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. PeraltaSP	3.0	0	0	0	0	3	29
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	9
J. HagenmanRP	3.0	4	2	2	0	4	47
H. BrazobanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17
J. BanksRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	19
Team	9.0	8	3	3	1	10	121

Player

3.0

1.0

3.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

121

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.167	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. FerminLF	.400	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Gorman3B	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. VelazquezLF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Urias3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. SaggeseLF	.333	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. ChurchLF	.250	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. Jordan3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. BernalC	.400	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. RivasSS	.429	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Moore2B	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. LevensonOF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Mendoza2B	.400	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jo. BáezRF	.222	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. RodriguezC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. DavisCF	.429	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. MadrisOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	3	8	3	1	1	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Q. MathewsSP	2.2	1	1	1	2	3	47
I. BedellSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. PushardRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	19
J. BruihlRP	0.2	1	3	3	2	1	28
J. DavilaP	0.1	2	2	2	0	1	10
R. FernandezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
G. SorianoRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	2	13
T. HenceRP	0.2	3	3	3	1	1	27
D. CarpenterRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	11
S. HalesRP	0.2	3	3	3	1	0	26
A. LoveSP	0.1	0	0	0	2	0	15
Team	9.0	14	14	13	9	10	211

Team

NYM

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs NYM.