Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 27, 2026

FINAL+8PHI

MIA

3-4

210

PHI

3-3-1

BayCare Ballpark · Clearwater, Florida

6,513 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium
Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.4± 1.1high
Otto LopezMIA
1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
3.0± 3.2high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.7± 2.8high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.4± 4.1high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
1.0± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.0± 2.0high
Brandon MarshPHI
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.1medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 2.9medium
Eury PerezMIA
2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

PHI

.716

OPS

◀

.718

.704

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.302

4.34

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.41

3.98

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.15

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

MIA 2 · PHI 10 (by 8)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
PHI	4	1	0	0	0	3	0	2	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. Edwards2B	.143	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. MarseeCF	.444	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
A. RamirezC	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. ConineLF	.222	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. Morel1B	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Norby1B	.200	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
H. HernandezLF	.222	2	0	2	1	0	1	0
J. Sanoja3B	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. AcostaSS	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. AldermanRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. EtzelLF	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. NavarretoC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BastidasSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Martorella1B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
I. Lewis2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ShadeOF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. JohnsonCF	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. Miller2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	2	7	2	0	6	13

Player

.143

.444

.000

.222

.200

.200

.222

.200

.222

.000

.400

.000

.000

.000

.000

.500

.200

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. SnellingSP	1.1	5	5	4	2	2	--
C. MartinRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. KingRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
Z. BrzykcyRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
J. RalstonRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
J. EknessRP	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	--
N. BelgraveRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
E. McKendrySP	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	--
Team	8.0	14	10	9	5	8	0

Player

1.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.250	2	1	2	1	0	1	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.333	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
K. SchwarberDH	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. GarciaRF	.250	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.667	1	1	1	1	0	2	0
E. Sosa2B	.400	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
J. CrawfordCF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. KempLF	.100	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. PegueroSS	.100	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
B. RinconSS	.333	2	1	2	1	1	0	0
K. HettigerC	.500	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. RodriguezSS	.250	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
N. HumphreysOF	1.000	1	2	1	0	0	0	0
R. Moore2B	.667	2	0	2	4	0	0	0
A. Escobar2B	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SaltibanSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. MurrLF	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
F. ReyesLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	10	14	10	1	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NolaSP	2.0	2	1	1	0	2	--
L. TrivinoRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	--
B. WilsonRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	3	--
M. LazarRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
S. JohnsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
L. StoudtSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
A. CombsSP	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	--
Team	9.0	7	2	2	6	13	0

Team

MIA

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs MIA.