Athletics vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 27, 2026

FINAL+1KC

ATH

1-5

3-4-1

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

4,785 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gage JumpATH
5.7± 2.5low
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.5medium
J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 2.7medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high
Alika WilliamsATH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Carter JensenKC
2.0± 1.7high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Nick KurtzATH
0.7± 1.1high
Carter JensenKC
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.5± 2.0medium
Aaron CivaleATH
2.9± 3.3low
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

.736

OPS

◀

.718

.707

.327

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.60

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.20

4.97

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.83

1.44

WHIP

1.31

1.43

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

ATH 6 · KC 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	2	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	6
KC	0	4	1	0	0	0	2	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WilsonSS	.286	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
T. SoderstromLF	.400	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. WynnsC	.143	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. CortesRF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. Muncy3B	.400	3	1	2	3	1	0	0
D. HernaizSS	.455	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
D. ClarkeCF	.083	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Meneses1B	.333	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
H. BolteCF	.182	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. De VriesSS	.333	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
E. Angeles3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. LavastidaC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. MarloweOF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Harris3B	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Stefanic2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PerezCF	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. White3B	.571	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. ElliottLF	.143	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		37	6	12	6	2	4	7

Player

.286

.400

.143

.333

.400

.455

.083

.333

.182

.333

.000

.000

.222

.333

.000

.286

.571

.143

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SpringsSP	1.2	3	4	4	2	0	--
G. HartliebRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	--
M. KellyRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	--
J. ArnoldSP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	--
E. AlvaradoRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	--
K. HugginsSP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	--
B. BassoRP	1.0	2	2	2	2	0	--
W. SueroRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	8.0	10	7	7	7	5	0

Player

1.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Witt Jr.SS	.462	2	1	2	3	1	1	0
M. Garcia3B	.385	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. PerezC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. CollinsLF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Pasquantino1B	.231	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. India2B	.000	1	2	0	0	0	2	1
K. IsbelCF	.250	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
J. Rojas3B	.400	3	1	1	2	0	0	0
D. WatersLF	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. MisnerCF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. VazquezSS	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
O. HernandezC	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. BlancoCF	.500	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. KaiserSS	.375	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. TreshC	.250	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. RoccaforteCF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Wilson2B	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Loftin2B	.167	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
Team		32	7	10	7	1	7	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. FalterRP	1.2	3	2	2	1	3	--
H. PattesonSP	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	--
N. MearsRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	--
C. EstevezRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	--
H. NerisRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	--
A. SanchezSP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
S. ZobacSP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
D. ColleranRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	12	6	6	4	7	0

Team

ATH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs ATH.