San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 27, 2026

FINAL+1COL

3-5

COL

6-2

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

7,488 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

COL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Michael KingSD
4.6± 2.5medium
Walker BuehlerSD
4.5± 1.9medium
Yu DarvishSD
4.5± 2.0medium

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.4± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.4± 0.5high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.5± 2.2high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.3± 4.0high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.2± 1.4high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.7high
Ty FranceSD
0.8± 1.8high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Sean SullivanCOL
4.0± 4.5low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

COL

.663

OPS

.718

▶

.741

.298

OBP

.319

▶

.325

3.89

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.64

3.89

Team ERA

◀

4.17

5.53

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.51

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

SD 2 · COL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	2
COL	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. BogaertsSS	.111	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. MerrillCF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Machado3B	.222	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.222	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. AndujarDH	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. LaureanoLF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. Song2B	.222	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. CampusanoC	.143	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
P. ReyesOF	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Acuna3B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BowenRF	.308	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. VilarC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. OrnelasLF	.167	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. McCoy2B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Sanabria1B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. TaylorLF	.500	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Miranda3B	.545	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. SalasC	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	2	4	2	0	5	12

Player

.111

.167

.222

.250

.222

.200

.333

.222

.143

.222

.200

.308

.333

.167

.333

.500

.500

.545

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. VasquezSP	2.2	0	0	0	2	4	--
R. MarinaccioRP	1.1	2	1	1	1	1	--
T. McKenzieRP	2.0	1	1	1	2	3	--
J. WolfSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
S. BoyleRP	1.1	3	1	1	0	2	--
Team	8.1	6	3	3	5	10	0

Player

2.2

1.1

2.0

1.0

1.1

Team

8.1

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MoniakLF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
E. TovarSS	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. GoodmanC	.182	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
W. Castro2B	.625	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. JohnstonRF	.133	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CarriggCF	.400	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Amador2B	.308	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
S. ThompsonRF	.091	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. McCannC	.143	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. BetancourtC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Lopez2B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Hedges2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Ritter2B	.429	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
T. Rumfield1B	.417	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. HillRF	.667	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Kent2B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. AvansLF	.154	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. VeenLF	.273	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		31	3	6	3	2	5	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GordonRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
J. MejiaRP	0.2	1	1	1	2	1	--
R. MillerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
J. BrebbiaRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	4	--
E. CastellanoRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	2	--
G. HerringRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	1	--
P. MushinskiRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
Team	9.0	4	2	1	5	12	0

Team

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

COL vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs SD.