Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 27, 2026

FINAL+2CHC

CLE

4-4

CHC

3-5

Sloan Park · Mesa, Arizona

11,217 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.6± 2.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.2± 2.4medium
Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.2± 1.1high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 2.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.0± 1.8high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.2± 2.5high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.3± 3.2medium
Colin ReaCHC
2.8± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

CHC

.676

OPS

.718

▶

.736

.312

OBP

.319

▶

.336

3.93

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.89

3.77

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.21

1.26

WHIP

1.31

1.25

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CLE 6 · CHC 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	1	6
CHC	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. RocchioSS	.273	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. NaylorC	.500	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. Hoskins1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
D. SchneemannCF	.364	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. AriasSS	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. KayfusLF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. RodriguezRF	.182	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MartinezLF	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. WatsonRF	.625	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. Frias3B	.000	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
C. IngleC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CozartC	.286	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
D. CurleySS	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. TolentinoSS	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Collado1B	.500	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. LampeCF	.333	1	2	1	0	0	1	0
J. ChourioCF	.375	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. AdvinculaRF	1.000	2	1	2	3	0	0	0
Team		35	6	8	6	0	3	12

Player

.273

.500

.000

.364

.222

.167

.182

.125

.625

.000

.200

.286

.000

.167

.500

.333

.375

1.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. AllenRP	3.0	3	2	2	2	2	--
H. GaddisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
P. MessickSP	2.2	4	2	2	0	2	--
J. LeftwichRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. MillerRP	0.1	0	3	3	3	0	--
J. DriverRP	0.2	2	1	1	1	2	--
Team	8.0	9	8	8	6	9	0

Player

3.0

1.0

2.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Hoerner2B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. Bregman3B	.333	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
I. HappLF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SwansonSS	.400	3	1	2	3	1	0	1
M. Busch1B	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. ShawRF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. AmayaC	.375	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CarlsonLF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. Triantos2B	.188	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DeanCF	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
P. Ramirez2B	.333	0	2	0	0	0	1	0
B.J. Murray Jr.3B	.286	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. ArmasC	.125	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
S. Kingery3B	.077	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
Le. EspinozaCF	.750	1	1	1	2	0	0	0
J. RojasSS	.357	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
C. OpitzC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	8	9	8	2	6	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CabreraSP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
R. RolisonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
D. PalenciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
C. SniderRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
J. WebbRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
P. HodgeRP	0.2	3	5	5	2	2	--
T. BeedeRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	--
E. RobertsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
G. HollowellRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	--
Team	9.0	8	6	6	3	12	0

Team

CLE

CHC

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs CLE.