Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 27, 2026

FINAL+7ATL

BOS

4-3

815

ATL

5-2

CoolToday Park · North Port, Florida

5,479 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 2.9medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high
Anthony SeiglerBOS
1.2± 1.1low
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.9± 1.6high
Willson ContrerasBOS
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Willson ContrerasBOS
0.8± 1.1high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low
Ozzie AlbiesATL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium
Grant HolmesATL
2.1± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

ATL

.698

OPS

.718

▶

.720

.312

OBP

.319

.311

4.02

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

3.69

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.41

1.24

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

8.7

K / 9

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

BOS 8 · ATL 15 (by 7)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	1	0	2	1	0	0	3	0	1	8
ATL	1	1	11	1	0	1	0	0	15

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnthonyLF	.188	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.333	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
J. DuranLF	.500	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
W. AbreuRF	.154	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Mayer2B	.333	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
N. Sogard3B	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Capra3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DelayC	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. WardCF	.357	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
P. SikesCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Ferguson2B	.333	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. RosarioC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. PintoSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. CastroCF	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. HickeyC	.111	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
N. BaezC	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. McDonoughOF	.600	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		37	8	10	8	5	1	11

Player

.188

.333

.500

.154

.250

.333

.125

.000

.167

.357

.000

.333

.000

.000

.300

.111

.500

.600

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BelloSP	2.0	4	5	5	1	1	--
P. LabriolaRP	0.1	3	4	4	1	1	--
S. BrooksRP	0.2	2	4	4	2	1	--
Z. KellyRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	--
K. KellerRP	0.2	0	0	0	3	2	--
J. Wu-YellandSP	1.1	1	1	1	1	1	--
R. WatsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
S. MartinezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
Team	8.0	13	15	15	8	7	0

Player

2.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

0.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.273	3	3	2	4	1	1	1
J. ProfarLF	.300	3	1	1	2	0	0	1
M. Olson1B	.500	2	2	1	1	1	2	0
A. Riley3B	.200	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. YastrzemskiLF	.750	3	3	3	3	2	0	0
O. Albies2B	.200	4	1	1	2	0	0	1
M. Harris IICF	.429	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
J. HeimC	.125	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. MateoSS	.182	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
O. CareyOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. LodiseSS	.000	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
J. Gil3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. HartmanOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Alvarez Jr.SS	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. HicklenCF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. SchunkSS	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SmithDH	.500	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. LeonC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. JarvisSS	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	15	13	14	4	8	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SaleSP	2.2	3	3	3	1	3	--
D. VinesSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	--
R. SuarezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
A. BummerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
H. StrattonRP	1.0	4	3	3	0	1	--
J. RitchieSP	2.0	1	1	1	0	5	--
Team	9.0	10	8	8	1	11	0

Team

BOS

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs BOS.