Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 26, 2026

FINAL+1MIA

MIA

3-3

TOR

1-4-1

TD Ballpark · Dunedin, Florida

3,637 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.5± 3.3low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.3± 0.8high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.8high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.2± 2.1high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.1± 2.5high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.3high
Griffin ConineMIA
0.5± 1.2medium

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 2.9medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

TOR

.716

OPS

◀

.718

.699

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.310

4.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.06

3.98

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.12

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 8 · TOR 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	4	2	8
TOR	2	3	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	7

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. LopezSS	.333	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
K. StowersLF	.167	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
E. RuizRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. HicksC	.667	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
O. CaissieRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
D. De Los Santos1B	.500	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MackC	.429	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. Berry1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. SernaSS	.250	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. JaworskySS	1.000	1	0	1	3	0	0	0
A. PintarCF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. LewisOF	.200	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. JonesCF	.200	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. HostetlerC	.400	1	2	1	1	0	0	0
D. Jasso1B	.400	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. Arroyo1B	.250	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
J. OlmsteadSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Beshears1B	.500	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		34	8	11	8	0	8	13

Player

.333

.167

.000

.667

.000

.500

.429

.000

.250

1.000

.250

.200

.200

.400

.400

.250

.000

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. GarrettSP	1.0	1	2	2	2	1	--
R. GustoSP	1.2	5	3	3	0	1	--
J. WalkinshawSP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	--
T. WhiteSP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	--
K. MilbrandtSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
G. ActonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
M. PetersenRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
J. WhiteRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
W. KempnerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	10	7	7	4	9	0

Player

1.0

1.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. VarshoCF	.625	2	2	2	0	0	1	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.286	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
A. BargerRF	.000	3	0	0	1	0	0	2
A. KirkC	.222	2	0	1	2	0	1	0
K. Okamoto3B	.333	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
E. Clement2B	.500	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.222	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
M. StrawRF	.250	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
E. JimenezDH	.500	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Lantigua2B	.500	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. WardRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Tirotta3B	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. SchreckLF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. ValenzuelaC	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. McAdoo2B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Doughty3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RiveraSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. KasevichSS	.571	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Mendoza3B	.600	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	7	10	7	1	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. GausmanSP	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	--
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
Y. RodriguezRP	1.0	2	1	1	2	1	--
S. MilesRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	--
B. LittleRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
L. EstradaRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
G. StaniferSP	0.2	0	3	3	2	2	--
G. UrbaezRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	--
M. PlassmeyerRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	--
Team	9.0	11	8	8	8	13	0

Team

MIA

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

3 sub-models, blended.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs MIA.