Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 26, 2026

FINAL+2PIT

MIN

2-5

PIT

5-2

LECOM Park · Bradenton, Florida

3,905 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8medium
Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.2± 1.3high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
2.5± 3.1medium
Brooks LeeMIN
2.0± 2.3high
Byron BuxtonMIN
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.9± 1.4high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

PIT

.734

OPS

.718

▶

.757

.321

OBP

.319

▶

.337

4.85

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.18

4.85

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.17

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

MIN 4 · PIT 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4
PIT	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OutmanCF	.286	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. BellDH	.286	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
T. GraySS	.222	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. WallnerRF	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. CaratiniC	.286	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. RodenLF	.750	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
E. RodriguezCF	.444	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
O. ArciaSS	.125	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. Rucker2B	.000	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
K. RosarioRF	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. BanuelosC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. GonzalezRF	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. OlivarC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. FedkoLF	.143	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. Schobel2B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. CulpepperSS	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. JenkinsCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	4	11	4	0	5	4

Player

.286

.286

.222

.000

.286

.750

.444

.125

.000

.500

.000

.500

.000

.143

.167

.300

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. Woods RichardsonSP	2.0	6	3	2	0	1	--
Z. MatthewsSP	2.1	2	1	1	2	3	--
M. HilkerRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	--
J. KleinSP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
T. AdamsRP	0.2	1	2	2	1	0	--
C. LawerysonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
Team	8.0	11	6	5	3	5	0

Player

S. Woods RichardsonSP

2.0

2.1

0.2

2.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumLF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. Horwitz1B	.250	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
B. ReynoldsLF	.667	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. OzunaDH	.167	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
O. CruzCF	.600	2	1	2	0	0	1	0
N. Gonzales3B	.636	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. BartC	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Yorke3B	.364	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.222	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. FletcherRF	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Cimillo1B	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Wendzel3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. AlfonzoC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Gourson2B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. WilliamsSS	.143	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
S. RossC	.600	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
B. CookRF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. GarciaRF	.400	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	6	11	4	1	3	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. UrquidyRP	1.1	2	3	3	2	2	--
J. FloresP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	--
C. DevenskiRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
Y. RamirezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
E. SiskRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
C. SandersRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	0	--
W. DotelRP	2.0	4	1	1	0	1	--
J. La SorsaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	11	4	4	5	4	0

Team

MIN

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs MIN.