Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 26, 2026

FINAL+4PHI

WSH

4-2-1

PHI

2-3-1

BayCare Ballpark · Clearwater, Florida

5,952 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium
Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.4± 1.1high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
3.0± 3.2high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.9± 3.5high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.7± 2.8high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
1.0± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.0± 2.0high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.1medium
Miles MikolasWSH
2.6± 3.0medium
Zack LittellWSH
2.4± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

PHI

.739

OPS

◀

.718

.704

.318

OBP

◀

.319

.302

5.26

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.41

4.71

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.15

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

WSH 3 · PHI 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	3
PHI	1	0	4	0	1	1	0	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Nunez2B	.286	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. WoodRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. House3B	.375	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. Hassell IIICF	.286	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. Chaparro1B	.400	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
R. AdamsC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. KingSS	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. LomavitaC	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. JordanCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. PetersenCF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Brown1B	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Wallace3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. NunezLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. Bernabel3B	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. FordC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. BrownSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	6	3	1	0	9

Player

.286

.000

.000

.375

.286

.400

.000

.500

.200

.000

.500

.143

.000

.000

.400

.250

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. EderRP	2.0	1	1	1	1	2	--
G. VarlandRP	0.2	3	4	4	1	1	--
S. ShumanSP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	--
Z. PenrodRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
B. Montes de OcaRP	0.2	0	1	1	3	1	--
E. TolmanRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
A. LaraSP	2.0	2	1	1	1	1	--
T. BaumDH	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	--
Team	8.0	7	7	7	8	6	0

Player

2.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

0.2

0.1

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Stott2B	.600	1	2	1	1	1	2	0
B. Harper1B	.333	1	1	1	2	0	1	0
B. De La CruzOF	.100	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. StubbsC	.250	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. MooreCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. RojasCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. NoriOF	.200	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. HettigerC	.667	1	2	1	2	1	1	0
L. PegueroSS	.143	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
A. Escobar2B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. ReyesLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. DeMartiniSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MurrLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. LeonRF	.300	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
P. McIntoshC	.333	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. CairoSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. RodriguezSS	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		27	7	7	7	2	8	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WalkerSP	2.0	3	1	1	0	1	--
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
T. BanksRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	--
J. BowlanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
C. ShugartRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
J. HernándezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
J. DallasP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
C. KingRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
Team	9.0	6	3	3	0	9	0

Team

WSH

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs WSH.