
CHW
4-3

LAD
6-0
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.6%
ensemble · CHW favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
CHW
league avg
LAD
.739
OPS
.718
▶.787
.323
OBP
.319
▶.346
4.82
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.32
4.22
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.44
1.32
WHIP
1.31
▶1.12
8.5
K / 9
8.5
▶8.9
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
LAD wins
CHW 6 · LAD 7 (by 1)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| LAD | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
CHW · top performer

Tanner Murray
LF
2-1
AB-H
1
R
2
RBI
LAD · top performer

Keston Hiura
1B
2-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 9th Inning
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .222 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .091 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .250 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .500 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .308 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .222 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .375 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .333 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| .200 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .400 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .500 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .143 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .429 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 33 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -- | |
| 3.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -- | |
| 0.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -- | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -- | |
| 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -- | |
| Team | 8.0 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .500 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .556 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .333 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .600 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .333 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .500 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1.000 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .462 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| .273 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .200 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .375 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .538 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .143 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .100 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 36 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -- | |
| Team | 9.0 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantCHW
LAD
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
8
Hits
13
6
Runs
7
0
Errors
1
Team stats
CHW
Away
Stat
LAD
Home
6
Runs
7
8
Hits
13
0
Errors
1
17
TB
23
2
HR
3
2
BB
3
12
K
8
8
LOB
19
Season series
LAD lead series 1-0
How it ended
LAD beat CHW 7-6. K. Hiura led the way — 1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS. J. Gonzalez's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).
Win probability
LAD vs CHW
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactHiura · homered to left center.
Wolkow · tripled to right, Romo scored.
J. Gonzalez · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Connor out at second.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| LAD | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | 7 |
Period scoring
CHW won 2 · LAD won 4
Inn 1
Freeman 1
Inn 2
Rojas 1
Inn 3
Murray 2
Hern 1
Inn 4
Inn 5
Smith 1
Inn 6
Mead 1
Hiura 1
Inn 7
Inn 8
Wolkow 1
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 591 plays
· ·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Camilletti grounded out to second.
· ·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
· ·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
· ·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Bonemer to second on wild pitch by Weems.
·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Bonemer to second on wild pitch by Weems.
·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Jordan Weems pitches to Mario Camilletti
· ·
CHW 6·LAD 7
·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Bonemer walked.
·
CHW 6·LAD 7
+3pp
Pitch 5 : Ball 4
·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Pitch 4 : Ball 3
·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Jordan Weems pitches to Caleb Bonemer
·
CHW 6·LAD 7
·
CHW 6·LAD 7
J. Gonzalez grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Connor out at second.BIG MOMENT
· ·
CHW 6·LAD 7
+23pp
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Jordan Weems pitches to Jacob Gonzalez
· ·
CHW 6·LAD 7
·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Connor walked.BIG MOMENT
·
CHW 6·LAD 7
−10pp
Pitch 4 : Ball 4
·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
CHW 6·LAD 7
Recap · MLB
os Angeles Dodgers held off Chicago White Sox, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 87 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands