New York Mets vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 26, 2026

FINAL+5NYM

NYM

3-2-1

HOU

1-4-1

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

3,118 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.6± 0.9high
Cam SmithHOU
0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

HOU

.673

OPS

.718

▶

.725

.299

OBP

.319

▶

.315

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.49

4.10

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.74

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 5 · HOU 0 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Semien2B	.375	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
M. TauchmanRF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. BichetteSS	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Vientos1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. MauricioSS	.300	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. TorrensC	.429	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. Young1B	.286	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
T. TaylorCF	.286	3	1	1	3	1	0	1
M. MelendezDH	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Arroyo2B	.375	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. RamosCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Rojas3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. HernándezSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. VillavicencioSS	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RortvedtC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. SnyderSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. RudickLF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Smith2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	5	10	5	2	3	2

Player

.375

.333

.286

.000

.300

.429

.286

.286

.250

.375

.000

.000

.000

.250

.000

.000

.500

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. McLeanSP	4.0	1	0	0	1	6	--
R. StockRP	3.0	1	0	0	0	6	--
A. SeverinoRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
B. SimonRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	--
Team	9.0	2	0	0	4	15	0

Player

4.0

3.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PenaSS	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
Z. ColeLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. CorreaSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Walker1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. AllenSS	.375	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SalazarC	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. GarciaC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Biggers2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. HuezoCF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Winkler2B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Z. DaudetUN	.500	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. SaccoSS	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CallUN	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. ThomasOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. GuillemetteC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		28	0	2	0	0	4	15

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ImaiSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
S. OkertRP	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	--
B. KingRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	--
A. BlubaughRP	2.0	4	1	1	0	2	--
R. WeissRP	2.1	1	0	0	2	0	--
A. MaldonadoRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	--
Team	9.0	10	5	5	3	2	0

Team

NYM

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs NYM.