San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 26, 2026

FINAL+1CIN

3-4

1011

CIN

3-2

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

2,847 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Michael KingSD
4.6± 2.5medium
Walker BuehlerSD
4.5± 1.9medium

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.1± 0.7high
Samad TaylorSD
1.1± 1.2high
Edwin ArroyoCIN
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Ty FranceSD
2.0± 3.4high
Manny MachadoSD
1.9± 2.7high
Sal StewartCIN
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high
Ty FranceSD
0.8± 1.8high
Manny MachadoSD
0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 2.9low
Nick LodoloCIN
2.9± 3.0low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CIN

.663

OPS

.718

▶

.699

.298

OBP

.319

▶

.310

3.89

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.25

3.89

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.59

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

SD 10 · CIN 11 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	3	0	0	6	0	1	0	10
CIN	0	3	0	0	6	1	0	1	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. JohnsonRF	.250	4	1	0	0	0	0	2
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.300	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
M. Machado3B	.250	3	2	2	6	2	1	0
G. Sheets1B	.143	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
T. France1B	.333	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
S. Song2B	.167	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
S. TaylorLF	.455	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
C. Dungan2B	.182	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
R. DuranC	.286	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
N. Solak1B	.400	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. RodríguezRF	.455	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. Miranda3B	.600	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. OrnelasLF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. VilarC	.400	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. Castanon2B	.333	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
N. SchnellRF	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Acuna3B	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. WagnerDH	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	10	10	10	3	10	12

Player

.250

.300

.250

.143

.333

.167

.455

.182

.286

.400

.455

.600

.200

.400

.333

.111

.222

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. PivettaSP	2.0	3	3	3	2	1	38
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
D. MorganRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
M. MendezSP	0.2	3	4	4	2	1	27
J. YeagerRP	0.1	2	2	2	1	1	21
M. CastroRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	15
R. OchRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	17
G. HawkinsRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	2	14
Team	8.0	14	11	11	6	6	151

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.375	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. McLain2B	.444	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
E. De La CruzSS	.556	3	0	2	2	0	0	0
E. SuarezDH	.182	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
S. SteerLF	.143	1	2	1	0	0	2	0
W. BensonRF	.250	2	2	1	0	0	1	0
N. MarteRF	.250	3	1	1	3	0	0	1
D. MyersCF	.200	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
W. BanfieldC	.500	3	0	1	3	0	0	2
T. CallihanLF	.333	2	2	2	1	1	0	0
M. Chavis2B	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. Arroyo2B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Collier3B	.167	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. Toglia1B	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. RodriguezLF	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. DunnCF	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. HindsRF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Co. BurnsC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	11	14	11	1	6	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BurnsSP	2.1	2	1	1	2	5	48
N. SandoSP	0.2	1	2	2	3	1	27
C. PettyRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	1	33
G. AshcraftRP	0.1	4	6	6	2	0	32
J. OrtizP	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	24
C. PhillipsRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	13
Z. MaxwellRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	20
C. CannonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
Team	9.0	10	10	10	10	12	208

Team

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs SD.