Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 26, 2026

FINAL+1BAL

DET

0-5-2

BAL

4-2-1

Ed Smith Stadium · Sarasota, Florida

5,959 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Jack FlahertyDET
5.7± 3.5medium

Hits

Kevin McGonigleDET
1.1± 0.7high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.0± 1.1high
Taylor WardBAL
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.0± 2.2high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.0high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 0.8high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.7± 2.3low
Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

BAL

.709

OPS

.718

.715

.315

OBP

.319

.318

4.13

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.58

3.78

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.38

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

DET 5 · BAL 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	1	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	5
BAL	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	0	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. VierlingCF	.375	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. Lee2B	.231	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.125	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. LiranzoC	.167	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. Anderson2B	.300	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. ValenciaC	.250	2	1	1	2	1	1	0
T. CruzCF	.286	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
J. PeckSS	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JulksLF	.444	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. ClarkCF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RuckerSS	1.000	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
B. LeeC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Gil2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MeyersOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MalgeriCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PenneySS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	5	9	5	2	3	3

Player

.375

.000

.231

.125

.167

.300

.250

.286

.250

.444

.200

1.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. MonteroSP	3.0	5	2	2	0	0	--
B. HurterRP	1.0	4	2	2	0	1	--
B. HanifeeRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	--
S. GuentherRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
M. RodriguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
C. PenaRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	--
Team	8.0	15	6	6	0	2	0

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. O'NeillRF	.778	3	1	3	1	1	0	0
P. Alonso1B	.308	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
S. BasalloC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. WardLF	.375	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
H. KjerstadLF	.273	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. Mayo3B	.545	2	0	2	2	0	0	0
L. TaverasCF	.444	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Jackson2B	.455	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. BarreroSS	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. NoelRF	.429	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
R. Noda1B	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. AndersonC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Ramos3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Vasquez3B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. TrimbleLF	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Estrada2B	.250	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. ArdoinC	.400	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezOF	1.000	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		35	6	15	5	1	0	2

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KremerSP	2.2	5	2	2	1	1	--
G. OgandoRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
J. KowarRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
C. FosterRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
T. GibsonSP	2.2	3	3	3	1	2	--
Y. RiveraRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
A. MagnoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
Team	9.0	9	5	5	3	3	0

Team

DET

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs DET.