Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 26, 2026

FINAL+3ARI

2-4-1

1013

ARI

3-4

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

6,471 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.5medium
Michael WachaKC
4.9± 2.3medium
Eduardo RodriguezARI
4.2± 1.8medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high
Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.8high
Carter JensenKC
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high
Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 0.7high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ARI

.707

OPS

◀

.718

.694

.316

OBP

◀

.319

.308

4.20

Runs / G

4.50

4.23

4.83

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.33

1.43

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

KC 10 · ARI 13 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	2	0	10
ARI	0	0	0	0	4	0	5	4	13

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThomasCF	.200	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. Drury2B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Newman3B	.300	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. Toro1B	.111	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.417	4	2	2	3	0	0	0
M. Massey2B	.500	3	1	2	1	0	0	1
C. JensenC	.444	3	1	3	3	1	0	0
J. RaveRF	.125	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. CrossRF	.222	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
O. HernandezC	.250	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Rojas3B	.429	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Tolbert2B	.143	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
D. DickersonSS	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. GentryRF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Wilson2B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MitchellC	.200	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. RoccaforteCF	.200	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
S. NivensLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		41	10	16	10	2	2	9

Player

.200

.000

.300

.111

.417

.500

.444

.125

.222

.250

.429

.143

1.000

.333

.167

.200

.200

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. BergertSP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
A. LangeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
E. CerantolaRP	0.1	3	4	4	3	0	--
B. WayRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	--
B. KudrnaSP	1.2	3	4	4	1	4	--
B. JohnsonRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	--
S. PanziniSP	1.0	4	4	4	0	1	--
Team	8.0	12	13	13	4	9	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.182	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. PerdomoSS	.357	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. MorenoC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Arenado3B	.429	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Santana1B	.200	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. ThomasCF	.500	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. BarrosaCF	.250	3	1	1	1	0	0	2
L. Groover1B	.313	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
Ó. MercadoRF	.400	3	0	1	3	0	0	1
T. TroyLF	.538	2	2	2	1	0	0	0
J. AmayaSS	.250	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. Baker1B	.100	1	2	1	3	1	1	0
J. FernandezDH	.250	3	2	1	3	1	0	1
M. O'NeillC	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A.J. VukovichCF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. JonesCF	.300	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. McLaughlin3B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RobinsonLF	.333	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		36	13	12	12	2	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. RodriguezSP	2.0	3	0	0	0	0	--
R. ThompsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
K. StrowdRP	0.2	3	2	2	0	1	--
A. PerezRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
Y. DiazSP	0.2	2	4	4	2	1	--
T. MendezRP	0.1	3	2	2	0	1	--
T. HatchRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
S. DubinRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	--
Ju. FernandezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
Team	9.0	16	10	10	2	9	0

Team

ARI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs KC.