Los Angeles Angels vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 25, 2026

FINAL+4SD

LAA

1-5

3-3

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

2,765 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · LAA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 3.8medium
Jose SorianoLAA
5.6± 1.9medium
Walbert UrenaLAA
5.0± 1.5medium

Hits

Donovan WaltonLAA
1.3± 1.0high
Nolan SchanuelLAA
1.1± 0.6high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Donovan WaltonLAA
2.4± 1.7high
Zach NetoLAA
2.0± 2.1high
Ty FranceSD
2.0± 3.4high

RBIs

Donovan WaltonLAA
0.9± 1.0high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
0.8± 1.2medium
Ty FranceSD
0.8± 1.8high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 2.9low
Ryan JohnsonLAA
2.9± 3.4low
Jose SorianoLAA
2.7± 2.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAA

league avg

.716

OPS

◀

.718

.663

.318

OBP

◀

.319

.298

4.51

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.89

4.58

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.89

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

LAA 3 · SD 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAA	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	3
SD	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	3	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.375	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Schanuel1B	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SolerDH	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. AdellRF	.286	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. LoweLF	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. O'HoppeC	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Moore2B	.286	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
D. Guzman3B	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. RodriguezCF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Paris2B	.167	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Mancini1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FloresC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. LugoLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. TeodosioLF	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
O. MartinezC	.333	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
Y. Sanchez3B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. MecklerLF	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	3	8	3	3	0	14

Player

.375

.143

.333

.286

.143

.286

.286

.200

.500

.167

.000

.250

.000

.250

.333

.250

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. KlassenSP	2.0	1	0	0	1	3	--
H. StricklandRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
S. BachmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
N. VictorRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
C. CortezRP	0.0	2	4	4	3	0	--
A. GordonRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	3	--
J. SouthardRP	0.2	3	3	3	1	0	--
C. HardingSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
Team	8.0	9	7	7	5	8	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.0

2.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. BogaertsSS	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Machado3B	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. MerrillCF	.200	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Cronenworth2B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. LaureanoLF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. CampusanoC	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. France1B	.444	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
W. WagnerDH	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. McCoy2B	.375	2	0	2	2	0	0	0
C. RodríguezRF	.500	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
N. SchnellRF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. CastellanosRF	.250	1	1	0	1	0	1	1
P. ReyesOF	.222	1	1	0	1	0	1	0
J. BowenRF	.400	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. SalasC	.333	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. Sanabria1B	.571	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		33	7	9	7	0	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KingSP	2.2	2	1	1	0	4	--
A. JacobRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	--
T. AdcockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
K. HartRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
O. CruzRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	--
J. HaynesSP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	--
L. GillaspieRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
Team	9.0	8	3	3	0	14	0

Team

LAA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs LAA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs LAA.