Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 25, 2026

FINAL+2BOS

BOS

3-2

MIN

2-4

Lee Health Sports Complex · Fort Myers, Florida

5,214 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 2.9medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Anthony SeiglerBOS
1.2± 1.1low
Brooks LeeMIN
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Brooks LeeMIN
2.0± 2.3high
Byron BuxtonMIN
2.0± 1.8high
Victor CaratiniMIN
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Willson ContrerasBOS
0.8± 1.1high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 1.9medium
Zebby MatthewsMIN
2.9± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

MIN

.698

OPS

.718

▶

.734

.312

OBP

.319

▶

.321

4.02

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.85

3.69

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.85

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 5 · MIN 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	5
MIN	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnthonyLF	.154	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. RafaelaCF	.300	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. DuranLF	.571	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.500	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
W. AbreuRF	.200	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
N. Sogard3B	.167	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. MonasterioSS	.400	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
N. HickeyC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Rodgers2B	.200	1	0	1	2	0	1	0
A. CastroCF	.600	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Ferguson2B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Campbell2B	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. ThaissC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. GasperC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Capra3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. WardCF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. McDonoughOF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. ChengSS	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	5	8	5	0	6	5

Player

.154

.300

.571

.500

.200

.167

.400

.000

.200

.600

.200

.333

.000

.333

.000

.222

.500

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OviedoSP	1.2	1	0	0	3	1	--
J. AllmerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. SlatenRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
T. UberstineRP	1.2	1	2	0	1	1	--
P. LabriolaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. BennettSP	1.1	3	1	1	0	1	--
M. SansoneRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	--
T. GuerreroRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	8	3	1	4	8	0

Player

1.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.2

0.1

1.1

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. LarnachLF	.167	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
L. Keaschall2B	.250	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
M. WallnerRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. JeffersC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Clemens1B	.143	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. LeeSS	.375	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
A. MartinRF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Urshela3B	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Wagaman1B	.300	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. CardenasC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. CulpepperSS	.333	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
K. FedkoLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. MendezOF	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RossSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. WinkelC	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Schobel2B	.200	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
A. Sabato1B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. KreidlerCF	.167	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	8	3	0	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
A. ChafinRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	--
J. TopaRP	0.2	2	4	4	3	1	--
B. StullP	1.1	3	1	1	0	0	--
E. OrzeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
M. BowmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
T. BakerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
J. NowlinSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
A. HamiltonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	8	5	5	6	5	0

Team

BOS

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs BOS.