San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 25, 2026

FINAL+1MIL

4-1

1213

MIL

2-4

American Family Fields of Phoenix · Phoenix, Arizona

3,972 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.9medium
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.5± 3.8medium
Landen RouppSF
5.9± 1.8medium

Hits

Luis ArraezSF
1.4± 0.8high
William ContrerasMIL
1.2± 1.5high
Casey SchmittSF
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Heliot RamosSF
2.0± 1.9high
Luis ArraezSF
2.0± 1.5high
Rafael DeversSF
2.0± 2.7high

RBIs

William ContrerasMIL
0.7± 1.2high
Rafael DeversSF
0.7± 1.2high
Andrew VaughnMIL
0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

Tyler MahleSF
3.4± 3.7low
Trevor McDonaldSF
2.8± 2.5low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.7± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

MIL

.725

OPS

.718

.732

.308

OBP

.319

▶

.337

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.16

4.32

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.40

1.36

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

SF 12 · MIL 13 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	0	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	4	12
MIL	1	0	0	7	0	1	0	1	3	13

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BaderCF	.444	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
B. EldridgeDH	.250	2	2	1	2	1	1	1
J. LeeRF	.417	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
E. HaaseC	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
W. BrennanLF	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. MatosRF	.429	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
C. SchmittLF	.111	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. Koss2B	.250	2	2	1	1	0	0	0
T. Fitzgerald2B	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. GilbertCF	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Holton1B	.429	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. McCrayCF	.333	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. SusacC	.429	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. OlivaCF	.400	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. EncarnacionRF	.100	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. RodríguezC	.250	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
V. BericotoRF	.600	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
N. Furman2B	.400	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
O. BasabeSS	.667	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. Harber3B	.333	1	0	1	1	0	1	0
Team		42	12	15	11	3	2	8

Player

.444

.250

.417

.167

.333

.429

.111

.250

.125

.222

.429

.333

.429

.400

.100

.250

.600

.400

.667

.333

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HouserSP	2.0	3	1	1	1	0	--
C. WhisenhuntSP	1.0	1	5	5	4	1	--
T. BeckRP	1.2	1	2	2	2	1	--
C. VernonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
J. ButtoRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	--
C. KilianRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
N. MargeviciusSP	1.2	5	4	4	1	0	--
Team	8.2	11	13	13	8	3	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.2

Team

8.2

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChourioLF	.182	3	1	0	1	0	1	0
B. Turang2B	.300	3	2	2	5	2	0	0
W. ContrerasC	.167	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. Bauers1B	.500	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. Vaughn1B	.375	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
L. Rengifo3B	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
G. MitchellCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. OrtizSS	.273	3	1	1	2	0	0	0
B. LockridgeLF	.556	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. Adamczewski2B	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Wilken3B	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MadeSS	.250	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
Jon Adams3B	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. WoodC	.333	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. LeonardSS	.667	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
L. LaraCF	.167	2	2	0	0	0	2	0
F. ZamoraSS	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
G. JonesLF	.400	0	1	0	1	0	1	0
Team		35	13	11	13	2	8	3

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. RodriguezRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	2	--
P. StrzeleckiRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	--
G. StallingsRP	0.2	4	5	5	1	0	--
J. BrocaRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	--
T. HardinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
B. WichrowskiRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
B. FitzpatrickRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
M. RodriguezRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
E. JimenezP	0.0	4	4	2	0	0	--
S. CruzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
Team	9.0	15	12	10	2	8	0

Team

MIL

3 sub-models, blended.

MIL vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIL vs SF.