Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 25, 2026

FINAL+3HOU

HOU

1-2-1

MIA

2-3

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

2,122 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.3± 0.8high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.2± 2.1high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.3high
Cam SmithHOU
0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 2.9medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

MIA

.725

OPS

◀

.718

.716

.315

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.49

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.34

4.74

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.98

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 4 · MIA 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	1	0	4
MIA	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MeyersCF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. TrammellCF	.500	3	1	2	1	1	0	1
Y. DiazC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. Whitcomb3B	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
P. SullivanCF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Winkler2B	.500	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
T. SaccoSS	.250	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
W. JanekC	.500	2	0	1	2	0	1	1
Z. DaudetUN	.667	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. ThomasOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. HuezoCF	.500	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
W. BushC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. RamirezSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CallUN	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Nelson3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. PriceC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. MonistereCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. GarciaC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	7	4	2	7	13

Player

.200

.500

.000

.143

.000

.500

.250

.500

.667

.000

.500

.000

.000

.000

.000

.333

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BrownSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
R. MunozRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	2	--
J. MurrayRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
L. VanWeyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
A. SantaRP	1.2	1	0	0	2	1	--
T. DombroskiSP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	5	1	0	2	10	0

Player

2.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarseeCF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. RamirezC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. ConineLF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Morel1B	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. HernandezLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Norby1B	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Sanoja3B	.286	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. AcostaSS	.333	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
K. AldermanRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. EtzelLF	.500	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. IgnoffoC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BastidasSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. JohnsonCF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. Martorella1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MatheusSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. ValenciaCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JaworskySS	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	5	1	0	2	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. PhillipsRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
L. BacharRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	--
T. ZuberRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	--
Ju. KingSP	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	--
S. VasquezP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
S. JonesRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
D. StanavichRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	2	--
J. SmithSP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	--
Team	9.0	7	4	4	7	13	0

Team

HOU

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs HOU.