Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 25, 2026

FINAL

SEA

2-3-1

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

5,703 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.2± 3.1medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high
Julio RodriguezSEA
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Carter JensenKC
2.0± 1.7high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Carter JensenKC
0.7± 0.8high
Nick LoftinKC
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Bryan WooSEA
2.8± 3.2medium
George KirbySEA
2.8± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

.696

OPS

.718

▶

.707

.312

OBP

.319

▶

.316

4.05

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.20

3.70

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.83

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 8 · KC 8 (tied)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	1	2	8
KC	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	1	0	8

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. RoblesRF	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. RefsnyderDH	.500	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. Naylor1B	.091	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Wisdom3B	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Mastrobuoni3B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. KniznerC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Young2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Rivas3B	.500	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
Wi. Wilson3B	.444	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. FarmeloOF	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. DavisCF	.625	3	2	3	1	1	0	0
L. MontesRF	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JoeRF	.250	2	2	1	2	1	1	1
V. LabradaCF	.600	3	2	3	0	0	0	0
J. ReetzC	.250	2	1	1	3	1	1	0
B. Rodden2B	.400	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
F. CelestenSS	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. Cali3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		39	8	13	8	3	4	9

Player

.125

.500

.091

.125

.250

.250

.000

.500

.444

.300

.625

.111

.250

.600

.250

.400

.500

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. WooSP	1.1	2	1	1	0	2	--
R. EasterlyRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	--
A. MunozRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
E. BazardoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
D. DunningRP	1.2	3	3	3	2	0	--
R. VanScoterSP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	--
C. BeilensonRP	0.2	2	3	2	0	0	--
G. ZunigaRP	0.2	2	1	1	1	2	--
R. HawksP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
J. KingsburyRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	--
Team	9.0	10	8	7	5	7	0

Player

1.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Garcia3B	.400	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.364	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
V. Pasquantino1B	.200	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
S. PerezC	.300	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. ThomasCF	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. IsbelCF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. India2B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. MisnerCF	.143	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
L. TreshC	.250	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
P. Wilson2B	.250	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
S. Russell3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. VazquezSS	.250	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. CrossRF	.167	2	1	1	3	1	0	0
E. MarreroC	.167	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. RaveRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. WatersLF	.167	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
N. Loftin2B	.100	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. KaiserSS	.286	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. RamírezC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		38	8	10	6	1	5	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. CameronSP	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	--
C. JesseeRP	2.0	1	1	1	1	0	--
M. BlackRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
J. CuasRP	1.0	3	4	4	1	1	--
E. MorganRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
H. OlivarezSP	1.0	3	1	1	1	2	--
B. SearsRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	--
Team	9.0	13	8	8	4	9	0

Team

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs SEA.