Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 25, 2026

FINAL+7COL

COL

4-2

147

CHC

2-4

Sloan Park · Mesa, Arizona

8,919 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.1± 2.8medium
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.3± 2.0medium

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.4± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.4± 0.5high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.5± 2.2high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.3± 4.0high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.2± 1.4high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.2± 2.5high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 1.0high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Sean SullivanCOL
4.0± 4.5low
Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

CHC

.741

OPS

.718

.736

.325

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.64

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.89

5.53

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.21

1.51

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

COL 14 · CHC 7 (by 7)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	2	1	0	0	6	0	0	5	0	14
CHC	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	7

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MoniakLF	.667	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
W. Castro2B	.714	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
H. GoodmanC	.125	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
D. AvansLF	.182	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
E. TovarSS	.375	3	1	1	4	1	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.167	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Rumfield1B	.300	2	2	2	2	2	1	0
Z. VeenLF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. Lopez2B	.222	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
B. BetancourtC	.000	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
V. MachinSS	.083	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
K. McCannC	.167	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
C. CapelLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Stevens2B	.333	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. MontgomeryCF	.333	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. Riggio2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CondonOF	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. ThompsonRF	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Kent2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		40	14	16	13	5	7	7

Player

.667

.714

.125

.182

.375

.167

.300

.250

.222

.000

.083

.167

.000

.333

.333

.000

.500

.125

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. QuintanaSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
A. SenzatelaRP	3.0	1	0	0	1	3	53
J. HillRP	0.0	2	4	4	1	0	26
C. StaineRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	20
K. EatonP	1.0	1	1	0	1	1	21
R. PetitRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	0	21
F. UlloaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	25
Team	9.0	10	7	6	5	5	179

Player

1.0

3.0

0.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

179

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Hoerner2B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Bregman3B	.167	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
I. HappLF	.333	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
D. SwansonSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. AmayaC	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. ShawRF	.286	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
B.J. Murray Jr.3B	.333	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. McCormickLF	.273	3	1	1	1	0	0	2
D. Ortiz3B	.250	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. SouthiseneSS	.500	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
A. CepedaSS	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
O. Miller2B	.400	3	1	1	2	0	0	0
Le. EspinozaCF	.667	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
A. ArmasC	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. SnellLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. HartshornOF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
O. AyersC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	7	10	7	0	5	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TaillonSP	2.0	4	3	3	0	1	32
C. HortonSP	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	26
C. ThielbarRP	0.1	6	5	5	0	0	22
E. TaylorRP	0.2	1	1	1	3	0	26
P. MatonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15
H. HarveyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	10
L. LittleRP	0.2	3	5	4	2	0	24
Y. RiosRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	7
J. NeelyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
Team	9.0	16	14	13	7	7	173

Team

COL

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs COL.