Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 25, 2026

FINAL+1BAL

2-3

BAL

3-2-1

Ed Smith Stadium · Sarasota, Florida

5,074 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Shane BazBAL
5.3± 2.8medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.0± 1.5high
Yandy DiazTB
2.0± 1.1high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.7± 2.3low
Shane BazBAL
2.6± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

BAL

.730

OPS

◀

.718

.715

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.318

4.52

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.58

3.78

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.38

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

TB 3 · BAL 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
BAL	0	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Palacios2B	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. FortesC	.333	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. MeltonLF	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. ViladeRF	.091	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. DeLucaRF	.429	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
T. Morgan1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Delgado2B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Kinney2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. LevinsC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Polanco2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. PiperC	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. MyersOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. HujsakOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. Bush Jr.CF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. Simpson1B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. SantanaSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. Pitre2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. SabolC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		32	3	4	3	1	5	12

Player

.143

.333

.222

.091

.429

.000

.500

.000

.000

.000

.333

.000

.000

.000

.500

.000

.000

.333

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. HopkinsSP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
T. JohnsonSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
G. JaxRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	--
Y. GomezRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	--
L. GuerreroRP	1.0	2	2	1	1	1	--
C. HillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
D. EdingtonRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	--
H. SnelsireRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
Team	8.0	8	4	3	4	9	0

Player

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.273	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. WardLF	.200	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
P. Alonso1B	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. O'NeillRF	.667	2	0	2	1	0	1	0
A. RutschmanC	.182	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Mountcastle1B	.167	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
B. Alexander3B	.400	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. BeaversRF	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
We. Wilson3B	.500	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
E. Bradfield Jr.CF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ButterworthSS	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. WillemsC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. HoneycuttCF	1.000	1	2	1	1	1	0	0
C. HightowerSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. ArdoinC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. HuffC	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Vasquez3B	.200	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. SosaCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	8	3	1	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. RogersSP	3.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
A. KittredgeRP	0.1	1	3	2	1	1	--
D. LloydRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	--
T. WellsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
A. NunezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
N. GermanSP	2.1	1	0	0	2	4	--
J. CabreraRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	--
Team	9.0	4	3	2	5	12	0

Team

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs TB.