Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 25, 2026

FINAL+2ATL

PIT

4-2

ATL

4-1

CoolToday Park · North Port, Florida

4,003 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8medium

Hits

Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.4high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
2.5± 3.1medium
Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.0± 3.2high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.9± 1.4high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.3high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

ATL

.757

OPS

◀

.718

.720

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.311

5.18

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.76

4.17

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.41

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

PIT 1 · ATL 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
ATL	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. CruzCF	.500	2	1	2	0	0	1	0
B. Lowe2B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. OzunaDH	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. O'HearnRF	.375	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
En. Valdez1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. TrioloSS	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. DavisC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Flores Jr.C	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. JebbLF	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. WilliamsSS	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. ValdezRF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Johnson2B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. FlorentinoOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Wendzel3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. BergC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. TaylorCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. GriffinSS	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. JarvisSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Cimillo1B	.429	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	6	1	0	4	13

Player

.500

.250

.250

.375

.000

.143

.000

.000

.286

.143

.333

.500

.000

.000

.250

.000

.222

.000

.429

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. SkenesSP	2.1	1	1	1	4	4	--
J. BaylessRP	0.2	2	2	2	0	2	--
M. ClevingerRP	2.0	2	0	0	2	1	--
M. Darrell-HicksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
N. MurdockSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
B. NeeckRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	8.0	5	3	3	6	9	0

Player

2.1

0.2

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. BaldwinC	.600	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. Olson1B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. ProfarLF	.286	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
A. Riley3B	.286	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
M. YastrzemskiLF	.600	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
O. Albies2B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Harris IICF	.250	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. DubonSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
P. ClohisyCF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. LeonC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. EnglishOF	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. WhiteRF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Alvarez Jr.SS	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MateoSS	.125	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. SchunkSS	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. HicklenCF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JarvisSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		28	3	5	3	1	6	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ElderSP	2.0	2	1	1	0	3	--
T. KinleyRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
D. LeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
D. DoddRP	1.2	2	0	0	1	2	--
T. LaPorteRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
H. HarrisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
J. KarinchakRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
J. GuerraRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	6	1	1	4	13	0

Team

PIT

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs PIT.