St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 24, 2026

FINAL+5WSH

STL

2-2

WSH

4-0-1

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

2,228 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Cade CavalliWSH
5.2± 3.2medium

Hits

JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Lars NootbaarSTL
1.1± 0.7high
Masyn WinnSTL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.9± 3.5high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.6± 0.5high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Miles MikolasWSH
2.6± 3.0medium
Dustin MaySTL
2.5± 2.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

WSH

.717

OPS

.718

▶

.739

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.318

4.47

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.26

4.26

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.71

1.35

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

7.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

STL 1 · WSH 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
WSH	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. Scott IICF	.000	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
T. SaggeseLF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. WalkerRF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. VelazquezLF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. PozoC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
P. PagesC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Prieto3B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. TorresLF	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. Mendoza2B	.429	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
C. DavisCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RivasSS	.600	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. AnticoCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MadrisOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. YerzyC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Jordan3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Moore2B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. KoperniakLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. EncarnacionSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	1	3	1	0	5	9

Player

.000

.200

.200

.250

.333

.000

.000

.000

.429

.000

.600

.000

.000

.333

.000

.200

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PallanteSP	2.0	0	1	1	1	2	29
J. BruihlRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
P. NaughtonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17
T. HenceRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
S. HalesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
A. LoveSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
M. MolinaSP	0.2	1	3	3	2	1	23
T. BradtRP	0.0	0	2	2	3	0	12
D. PiconeRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	13
Team	8.0	4	6	6	7	8	146

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.0

0.1

Team

8.0

146

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Nunez2B	.250	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. WoodRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.000	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
B. House3B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. RuizC	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Chaparro1B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Hassell IIICF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. FordC	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. KingSS	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Dugas2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. PetryOF	.000	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
L. PinedaRF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. Wallace3B	.000	1	1	0	1	0	1	1
J. RogersLF	.250	0	1	0	1	0	1	0
W. Bernabel3B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. VaqueroRF	.667	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
T. BarreraC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. DiazSS	.333	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		29	6	4	5	0	7	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CavalliSP	2.0	0	0	0	1	1	24
K. WaldichukRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	28
B. PolancoSP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	20
C. HenryRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
R. CornelioSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	39
K. LuckhamSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	28
Team	9.0	3	1	1	5	9	153

Team

STL

WSH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs STL.