New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 24, 2026

FINAL+1NYY

NYY

3-2

TOR

1-3

TD Ballpark · Dunedin, Florida

5,819 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.9± 3.3medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
5.9± 3.1medium

Hits

Ernie ClementTOR
1.1± 1.1high
George SpringerTOR
1.0± 0.9high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 0.9high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.1± 2.5high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.8± 2.6high
Daulton VarshoTOR
1.6± 2.6high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Amed RosarioNYY
0.6± 1.1high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

TOR

.746

OPS

◀

.718

.699

.321

OBP

◀

.319

.310

4.90

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.06

3.30

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.12

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

8.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 8 · TOR 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	2	0	2	0	3	0	0	1	0	8
TOR	1	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	7

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.167	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
A. JudgeRF	.500	2	2	1	0	0	0	0
C. BellingerLF	.667	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.600	2	1	1	1	0	1	1
P. Goldschmidt1B	.444	3	2	2	4	1	0	0
A. WellsC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Rosario3B	.286	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
J. CaballeroSS	.333	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. LucianoOF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Vivas3B	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. CoronaCF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Martinez Jr.1B	.167	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. PalmaC	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. KentSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ShewmakeSS	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AvinaLF	.667	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. CastilloRF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. DuranC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		37	8	11	8	2	3	6

Player

.167

.500

.667

.600

.444

.000

.286

.333

.000

.222

.200

.167

.200

.000

.167

.667

.500

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. WarrenSP	2.2	4	1	1	0	4	--
J. BirdRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	--
B. HeadrickRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
B. HannerRP	0.2	3	4	3	1	0	--
K. CastroRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
C. ColemanRP	1.1	2	2	2	1	2	--
Team	9.0	11	7	6	3	12	0

Player

2.2

1.1

1.0

0.2

2.0

1.1

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. StrawRF	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. VarshoCF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezRF	.200	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
D. SchneiderLF	.200	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Jimenez3B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. ValenzuelaC	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. KasevichSS	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Tirotta3B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Cowles3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Y. PinangoLF	.167	0	1	0	0	0	2	0
I. MunguiaOF	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. CaseyOF	1.000	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
R. Lantigua2B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. NimmalaSS	.333	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. Coffey3B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. ParkerC	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. DuranC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mendoza3B	.750	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
C. McAdoo2B	.500	2	1	1	2	0	0	1
J. RiveraSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		38	7	11	6	1	3	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. RogersRP	2.0	4	2	2	1	1	--
T. RogersRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	--
A. BastardoRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
J. HahnRP	0.2	3	3	3	1	0	--
H. JuengerSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
R. JenningsSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
T. AndrewsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
N. GarkowP	2.0	2	1	1	0	1	--
Team	9.0	11	8	8	3	6	0

Team

NYY

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs NYY.