Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 24, 2026

FINAL+11TB

MIN

2-2

112

2-2

Charlotte Sports Park · Port Charlotte, Florida

2,594 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.8± 2.1medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Trevor LarnachMIN
1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.0± 2.3high
Byron BuxtonMIN
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 1.9medium
Zebby MatthewsMIN
2.9± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

.734

OPS

.718

.730

.321

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.85

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.52

4.85

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.78

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.20

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

MIN 1 · TB 12 (by 11)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
TB	1	0	5	1	3	0	0	2	12

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. KreidlerCF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. JenkinsCF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Lewis3B	.400	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. RodenLF	.750	1	0	1	0	0	2	0
E. Wagaman1B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. RodriguezCF	.429	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. JacksonC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. GonzalezRF	.400	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. CulpepperSS	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. RobinsonSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. HoughtonCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Doncon3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. FedkoLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. SpainRF	1.000	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
P. WinkelC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. OlivarC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. HessOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. GenthSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	5	1	1	2	6

Player

.250

.000

.400

.750

.250

.429

.250

.400

.143

.000

.000

.000

.000

1.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. MacLeodP	1.2	0	1	1	2	1	--
I. RomeroRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
J. MerryweatherRP	0.1	0	1	1	1	1	--
D. BowenSP	1.1	4	5	5	2	0	--
G. HartwigRP	1.1	2	3	3	0	0	--
R. BritoRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
A. BashRP	2.0	2	2	1	1	1	--
Team	8.0	8	12	11	7	4	0

Player

1.2

0.1

0.1

1.1

1.1

1.0

2.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Williamson2B	.400	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
Y. DiazDH	.333	1	2	1	1	1	2	0
J. Aranda1B	.286	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Caminero3B	.375	3	1	1	3	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. FraleyRF	.333	2	0	1	3	0	0	0
R. ViladeRF	.125	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
H. FeducciaC	.200	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
J. MalloyRF	.143	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
G. BarriosSS	.400	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MeltonLF	.333	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
E. OlivaresRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Davidson1B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. OvernOF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. JonesOF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. Kinney2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. VellojinC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Simpson1B	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	12	8	11	2	7	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BoyleSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
G. CleavingerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
C. BooserRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
A. WantzRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
J. RockRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	--
K. WhitleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
J. KistingRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
E. ReifertRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	--
Team	9.0	5	1	1	2	6	0

Team

MIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs MIN.