Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 24, 2026

FINAL+2CHW

CHW

4-1

1210

SEA

2-3

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

4,238 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.2± 3.1medium

Hits

Sam AntonacciCHW
1.2± 0.9high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.1± 0.9high
Julio RodriguezSEA
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Miguel VargasCHW
2.2± 2.5high
Cole YoungSEA
1.8± 2.8high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Kyle TeelCHW
1.0± 1.7low
Jacob GonzalezCHW
0.8± 1.7high
Miguel VargasCHW
0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
2.8± 3.2medium
George KirbySEA
2.8± 1.8medium
Sean BurkeCHW
2.5± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

SEA

.739

OPS

◀

.718

.696

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.312

4.82

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.05

4.22

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.70

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 12 · SEA 10 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	1	2	0	3	2	0	3	0	1	12
SEA	1	0	2	2	3	1	1	0	0	10

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Mead3B	.300	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
E. QueroC	.667	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
A. HaysLF	.333	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
L. Sosa2B	.333	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
S. AntonacciLF	.286	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. HillRF	.333	2	2	1	0	0	1	1
B. BaldwinLF	.571	3	2	3	1	0	0	0
L. Wade Jr.1B	.125	4	2	1	1	0	0	0
T. MurrayLF	.286	3	1	2	3	1	0	0
D. RomoC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Camilletti2B	.750	2	0	2	2	0	0	0
R. NishidaRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Gonzalez1B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Galanie1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MontgomeryRF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dru BakerCF	.500	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
Da. Baker2B	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
O. Dunn3B	.167	2	1	1	2	0	0	1
Team		41	12	16	12	1	6	5

Player

.300

.667

.333

.333

.286

.333

.571

.125

.286

.250

.750

.000

.200

.000

.333

.500

1.000

.167

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. KaySP	2.0	1	1	1	2	2	--
W. GonzálezRP	1.0	3	2	2	2	1	--
A. AlbertoRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	3	--
J. IriarteRP	0.1	1	3	2	3	1	--
C. PlymellRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	--
T. SchweitzerRP	2.0	4	2	2	0	2	--
A. CoffeyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
Z. FranklinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	12	10	9	9	12	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Donovan3B	1.000	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
C. RaleighC	.200	4	1	2	2	1	1	2
J. RodriguezCF	.571	2	0	1	2	0	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.125	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. ArozarenaLF	.429	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
L. RaleyRF	.600	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. CanzoneDH	.375	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
M. ArroyoSS	.400	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
C. EmersonSS	.250	3	1	2	2	0	0	1
M. Mastrobuoni3B	.300	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
V. LabradaCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. O'KeefeC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. ThomasLF	.429	1	1	1	1	1	1	0
C. Taylor1B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. PackardOF	.667	2	2	2	0	0	0	0
L. MontesRF	.143	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. SundstromOF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RambuschOF	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Rodden2B	.429	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		37	10	12	8	2	9	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. KirbySP	1.1	2	2	2	1	1	--
S. RaethRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	--
M. RuckerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
T. TaylorRP	0.2	4	3	3	1	0	--
R. LumpkinRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
A. HoppeRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	--
M. MoralesSP	1.1	0	1	1	2	0	--
N. TellacheSP	0.2	3	2	2	0	1	--
B. CastanoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
N. DavilaRP	0.2	1	1	1	1	2	--
P. Alford1B	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	--
Team	9.0	16	12	12	6	5	0

Team

CHW

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs CHW.