Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 24, 2026

FINAL+5BAL

BAL

2-2-1

105

MIN

2-3

Lee Health Sports Complex · Fort Myers, Florida

4,884 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.8± 2.1medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.2± 1.3high
Victor CaratiniMIN
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Brooks LeeMIN
2.0± 2.3high
Byron BuxtonMIN
2.0± 1.8high
Victor CaratiniMIN
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

MIN

.715

OPS

.718

▶

.734

.318

OBP

.319

.321

4.58

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.85

4.38

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.85

1.38

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 10 · MIN 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	6	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	10
MIN	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. TaverasCF	.667	4	2	3	2	0	0	0
S. BasalloC	.286	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. Jackson2B	.375	4	1	2	2	0	0	0
C. Mayo3B	.444	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
H. KjerstadLF	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. VazquezSS	.429	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
R. Noda1B	.143	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
W. RobertsonLF	.167	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
R. TrimbleLF	.333	1	1	0	1	0	1	0
N. GeorgeOF	.000	0	0	0	1	0	2	0
B. Ramos3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. AndersonC	.000	0	0	0	1	0	2	0
A. Estrada2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. ArdoinC	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. BarreroSS	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. NoelRF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. IrishC	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. FabianCF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		40	10	14	10	0	9	9

Player

.667

.286

.375

.444

.250

.429

.143

.167

.333

.000

.000

.000

.000

.333

.143

.500

1.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SuarezRP	2.0	3	1	1	1	0	--
R. HelsleyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
Y. CanoRP	1.0	3	2	0	0	2	--
G. WolframRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
Y. HiraldoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
D. EnnsRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
C. McDermottSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
Z. BarnhartRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	2	--
Team	9.0	9	5	3	3	12	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.286	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BellDH	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. LarnachLF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.200	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. OutmanCF	.500	3	2	2	0	0	0	1
G. Urshela3B	.125	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
O. ArciaSS	.000	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
T. GraySS	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. RosarioRF	.400	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
A. Sabato1B	.200	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Schobel2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. CossettiC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Rucker2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Salas2B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. BanuelosC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RossSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. MendezOF	.200	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
Team		35	5	9	5	1	3	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MorrisRP	1.1	6	4	4	0	0	--
S. RyanSP	0.2	3	2	2	1	1	--
T. RogersRP	1.0	2	2	2	2	2	--
A. BandaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
C. SandsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
D. AltavillaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
M. ParedesSP	0.2	1	2	2	3	1	--
J. WhorffP	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	--
R. CastroSP	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	--
Team	9.0	14	10	10	9	9	0

Team

BAL

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs BAL.