Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 24, 2026

FINAL+5MIA

PHI

0-3-1

MIA

2-2

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

3,707 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium
Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.4± 1.1high
Liam HicksMIA
1.3± 0.7high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
3.0± 3.2high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.7± 2.8high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.4± 4.1high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
1.0± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.0± 2.0high
Brandon MarshPHI
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.1medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 2.9medium
Eury PerezMIA
2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

MIA

.704

OPS

.718

▶

.716

.302

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.41

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.34

4.15

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.98

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

9.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

PHI 1 · MIA 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
MIA	0	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.000	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. De La CruzOF	.143	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. RojasCF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. MarchanC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. StubbsC	.200	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
D. MooreCF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Escobar2B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. ReyesLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Anthony1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. DeMartiniSS	.400	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. CampbellCF	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Moore2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. PegueroSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. HettigerC	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. NoriOF	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CairoSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RickettsC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		29	1	4	0	0	3	12

Player

.000

.500

.143

.000

.000

.200

.000

.167

.000

.000

.400

.250

.000

.000

.500

.167

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. JohnsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
M. LazarRP	1.0	2	1	1	2	0	--
N. HoffmanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
A. McFarlaneSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
A. WallingRP	1.0	2	4	4	0	2	--
J. EstanistaRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	--
M. NeunbornRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	--
A. SeminarisSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	8.0	7	6	6	6	7	0

Player

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. Edwards2B	.000	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
K. StowersLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
O. LopezSS	.200	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
O. CaissieRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. RuizRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. HicksC	.750	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. MackC	.400	3	1	1	4	1	0	1
D. Jasso1B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. JonesCF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. LewisOF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
E. O'DonnellCF	.500	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
J. SernaSS	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. PintarCF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Berry1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. De Los Santos1B	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. NavarretoC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. OlmsteadSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. HostetlerC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	6	7	6	1	6	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PaddackSP	1.0	1	1	0	0	1	--
A. MazurSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
D. FultonRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	--
J. KingRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
Z. BrzykcyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
C. GibsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. RalstonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
J. EknessRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	--
N. BelgraveRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	4	1	0	3	12	0

Team

PHI

MIA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs PHI.