Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 24, 2026

FINAL+1CIN

2-3

CIN

1-2

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

2,429 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.5medium
Michael WachaKC
4.9± 2.3medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high
Edwin ArroyoCIN
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Carter JensenKC
2.0± 1.7high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high
Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Carter JensenKC
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
2.9± 3.0low
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CIN

.707

OPS

◀

.718

.699

.316

OBP

◀

.319

.310

4.20

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.25

4.83

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.59

1.43

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

KC 4 · CIN 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	4
CIN	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. CollinsLF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. JensenC	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Loftin2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.375	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
K. Newman3B	.250	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
M. Massey2B	.429	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. Rojas3B	.600	2	1	2	3	1	0	0
A. Toro1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Tolbert2B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RoccaforteCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. BrownC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. SquiresOF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Becker1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PinedaSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MitchellC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. WatersLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. MisnerCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. KaiserSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	6	4	2	1	11

Player

.000

.167

.000

.375

.250

.429

.600

.000

.200

.000

.333

.500

.000

.333

.000

.000

.000

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WachaSP	2.0	3	1	1	3	3	--
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
H. NerisRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
C. EstevezRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	--
H. PattesonSP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	--
D. ColleranRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
A. PérezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
J. HeasleyRP	0.1	4	2	2	0	0	--
Team	8.1	11	5	5	6	5	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

Team

8.1

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.400	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
M. McLain2B	.500	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
E. De La CruzSS	.500	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
E. SuarezDH	.222	3	1	2	1	1	0	1
S. SteerLF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. BensonRF	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. StephensonC	.200	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
N. MarteRF	.200	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
D. MyersCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
S. Stewart1B	.500	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. BalcazarSS	.500	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. Arroyo2B	.333	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. Collier3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Toglia1B	.250	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. CallihanLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. BanfieldC	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. DunnCF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Hampson2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	5	11	5	2	6	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AbbottSP	2.0	2	2	2	0	2	--
B. WilliamsonSP	2.0	3	2	2	0	4	--
P. JohnsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
S. MollRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
Y. MarteRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
S. BenschoterRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
T. KunclSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	6	4	4	1	11	0

Team

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs KC.