San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 24, 2026

FINAL+1CHC

2-3

CHC

2-3

Sloan Park · Mesa, Arizona

9,411 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.1± 2.8medium
Michael KingSD
4.6± 2.5medium

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.2± 1.1high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 2.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.0± 1.8high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.2± 2.5high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 2.9low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.3± 3.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CHC

.663

OPS

.718

▶

.736

.298

OBP

.319

▶

.336

3.89

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.89

3.89

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.21

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

SD 5 · CHC 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	2	5
CHC	1	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. JohnsonRF	.375	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
N. CastellanosRF	.286	3	0	2	2	0	0	0
M. AndujarDH	.286	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
S. Song2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. Solak1B	.375	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. TaylorLF	.556	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. McCoy2B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
P. ReyesOF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. DuranC	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. BowenRF	.375	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Sanabria1B	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. OrnelasLF	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Miranda3B	.667	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. Dungan2B	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. SchnellRF	.143	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
F. Acuna3B	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Castanon2B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. VilarC	.250	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		39	5	12	5	1	5	7

Player

.375

.286

.286

.000

.375

.556

.167

.250

.000

.375

.500

.250

.667

.125

.143

.286

.200

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. GonzalesSP	1.2	5	3	3	0	2	--
R. MarinaccioRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
F. PenaRP	0.2	2	3	3	2	1	--
J. WolfSP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	--
R. OchRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	--
E. RoutzahnRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
Team	8.0	9	6	6	4	9	0

Player

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Busch1B	.500	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
M. ShawRF	.333	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
C. KellyC	.500	3	1	2	2	1	0	1
D. CarlsonLF	.400	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. McCormickLF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Triantos2B	.182	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
B.J. Murray Jr.3B	.300	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
J. DeanCF	.167	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
S. Kingery3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. Miller2B	.429	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. RojasSS	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. OpitzC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. BatemanCF	.429	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
P. Ramirez2B	.429	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. PreciadoSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. SnellLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. KepleyOF	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. LumpuyCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	6	9	6	1	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ImanagaSP	2.0	3	0	0	0	1	--
D. PalenciaRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	0	--
J. WebbRP	0.2	1	2	2	2	0	--
V. ReillyP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	--
E. RobertsRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
H. MilnerRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	--
G. HollowellRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
J. BrighamRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	1	--
G. KippP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	--
Team	9.0	12	5	4	5	7	0

Team

CHC

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs SD.