Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 24, 2026

FINAL+9PIT

PIT

4-1

167

BOS

2-2

JetBlue Park at Fenway South · Fort Myers, Florida

8,813 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 2.9medium

Hits

Anthony SeiglerBOS
1.2± 1.1low
Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.4high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
2.5± 3.1medium
Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.0± 3.2high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.9± 1.4high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.8± 1.1high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.7± 2.8low
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

BOS

.757

OPS

◀

.718

.698

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.312

5.18

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.02

4.17

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.69

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 16 · BOS 7 (by 9)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	2	1	3	4	1	1	1	3	16
BOS	0	0	0	1	3	1	2	0	0	7

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumLF	.333	3	2	2	2	0	1	0
N. Gonzales3B	.625	3	0	3	2	0	0	0
S. Horwitz1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Yorke3B	.333	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
En. Valdez1B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. RodriguezC	.500	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
K. GriffinSS	.222	4	2	2	4	2	0	0
J. GarciaRF	.500	3	2	2	0	0	0	1
B. CookRF	.143	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
M. JebbLF	.200	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Johnson2B	.571	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
E. Gourson2B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. De Los SantosSS	.333	1	2	1	3	1	1	0
D. BergC	.333	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. RossC	.500	2	0	1	2	0	0	1
C. Moss1B	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
D. FletcherRF	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. ValdezRF	.400	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		45	16	21	14	3	5	6

Player

.333

.625

.000

.333

.000

.500

.222

.500

.143

.200

.571

.333

.333

.333

.500

1.000

.143

.400

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. MlodzinskiSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	32
T. HarringtonSP	2.0	1	1	1	2	0	30
A. KellySP	1.1	3	4	4	2	0	35
E. ChapmanRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	19
K. CurtisSP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	24
J. MeisSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
C. NielsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	12
Team	9.0	7	7	7	8	6	161

Player

2.0

2.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

161

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnthonyLF	.111	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. StorySS	.333	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. DuranLF	.500	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
W. Contreras1B	.429	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
W. AbreuRF	.143	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RafaelaCF	.333	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. WongC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. RomeroSS	.375	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
T. ChengSS	.333	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
B. WardCF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. GasperC	.400	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. CastroCF	.750	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
N. HickeyC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. EatonOF	.444	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Sogard3B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. DelayC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		34	7	7	6	2	8	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. SuarezSP	1.2	3	2	2	0	2	33
M. CarlsonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
R. WatsonRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	18
S. MartinezRP	1.0	4	3	3	0	2	25
V. NittoliRP	0.2	3	4	4	0	0	22
S. BrooksRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	11
A. GamboaRP	1.1	2	2	2	1	0	31
J. VogatskyP	0.2	0	0	0	2	0	27
J. WebbRP	1.2	3	3	2	0	1	31
G. KilanderRP	0.1	2	1	1	1	0	20
Team	9.0	21	16	15	5	6	222

Team

PIT

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs PIT.