
MIL
1-4

ATH
0-4
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.6%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
MIL
league avg
ATH
.732
OPS
.718
.736
.337
OBP
.319
.327
5.16
Runs / G
4.50
4.60
3.40
Team ERA
4.17
4.97
1.18
WHIP
1.31
1.44
9.9
K / 9
8.5
8.5
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
MIL wins
MIL 10 · ATH 0 (by 10)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| ATH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
MIL · top performer

Tyler Black
DH
3-3
AB-H
2
R
6
RBI
ATH · top performer

Cade Marlowe
OF
1-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 3rd Inning
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .333 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .143 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .500 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .200 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .625 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .500 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .400 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .400 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .500 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 36 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -- | |
| Team | 8.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .143 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .250 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .500 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .429 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .333 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .286 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .500 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .167 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .667 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 30 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -- | |
| 0.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -- | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -- | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -- | |
| Team | 9.0 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantMIL
ATH
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
12
Hits
5
10
Runs
0
0
Errors
1
Team stats
MIL
Away
Stat
ATH
Home
10
Runs
0
12
Hits
5
0
Errors
1
21
TB
5
1
HR
0
5
BB
2
9
K
4
15
LOB
13
Season series
MIL leads series 1-0
How it ended
MIL beat ATH 10-0. T. Black led the way — 3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS. Black's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
ATH vs MIL
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactTurang · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Frelick out at second.
Black · homered to right (373 feet), Perkins scored.
Black · singled to center, Frelick scored, Turang scored and Perkins scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| ATH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Period scoring
MIL won 5 · ATH won 0
Inn 1
Inn 2
Black 2
Inn 3
Black 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Black 1
Inn 6
Inn 7
Pratt 1
Inn 8
Inn 9
Adams 1
Play-by-play · 575 plays
End of the 9th inning
MIL 10·ATH 0
·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Angeles grounded into double play, second to first, De Vries out at second.
· ·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Miles Langhorne pitches to Euribiel Angeles
· ·
MIL 10·ATH 0
·
MIL 10·ATH 0
De Vries walked.
·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Pitch 4 : Ball 4
·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Miles Langhorne pitches to Leo De Vries
·
MIL 10·ATH 0
·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Lasko struck out swinging.
·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking
·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Miles Langhorne pitches to Ryan Lasko
·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Langhorne relieved Seppings
MIL 10·ATH 0
Bottom of the 9th inning
MIL 10·ATH 0
Middle of the 9th inning
MIL 10·ATH 0
· ·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Miller popped out to shortstop.
· ·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
MIL 10·ATH 0
Recap · MLB
ilwaukee Brewers went into Athletics and beat them, 10–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 91 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands