Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 23, 2026

FINAL+1CHC

CHC

1-3

2-2

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

4,872 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.1± 2.8medium
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.5medium

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.2± 1.1high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 2.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.2± 2.5high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.3± 3.2medium
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

.736

OPS

◀

.718

.707

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.89

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.20

4.21

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.83

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 3 · KC 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	3
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Triantos2B	.222	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
J. RojasSS	.375	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
B.J. Murray Jr.3B	.143	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
P. Ramirez2B	.429	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. DeanCF	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
S. Kingery3B	.000	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. BatemanCF	.429	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. ArmasC	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. KepleyOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. SouthiseneSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Bowser3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. CepedaSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. GarriolaLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. McGeary1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. TriceC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. OpitzC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	3	6	3	1	3	8

Player

.000

.222

.375

.143

.429

.111

.000

.429

.143

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BrownRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	3	--
J. AssadSP	1.1	2	0	0	0	1	--
J. KirkpatrickRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	--
P. HodgeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
R. RolisonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
C. SniderRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
T. RasSP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	--
W. PowellP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	--
Team	9.0	7	2	2	2	12	0

Player

2.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Garcia3B	.500	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
B. Witt Jr.SS	.375	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.143	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. PerezC	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. ThomasCF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. India2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Drury2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. IsbelCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. RaveRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Rojas3B	.333	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
O. HernandezC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kulasingham1B	.667	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. NivensLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. VazquezSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Wilson2B	.333	1	0	0	1	0	0	1
E. MarreroC	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. MisnerCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. CrossRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	7	2	1	2	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. LugoSP	2.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
L. AvilaRP	2.0	2	1	1	1	1	--
A. LangeRP	0.2	1	2	1	2	2	--
Z. CawyerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
J. CuasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
E. CerantolaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
S. PanziniSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
R. RamseySP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	6	3	2	3	8	0

Team

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs CHC.