Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 23, 2026

FINAL+4CLE

ARI

1-3

CLE

4-0

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

3,385 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.6± 2.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.2± 2.4medium
Joey CantilloCLE
4.9± 3.3medium

Hits

Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 0.7high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.1± 0.9high
Chase DeLauterCLE
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.8high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.7± 2.1high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.6± 3.1high

RBIs

Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.8± 1.4low
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high
Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 0.7high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.8± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

CLE

.694

OPS

◀

.718

.676

.308

OBP

.319

▶

.312

4.23

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.93

4.33

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.77

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

7.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

ARI 5 · CLE 9 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	5
CLE	0	0	2	0	3	2	0	2	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. PerdomoSS	.500	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. MorenoC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. SmithDH	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Baker1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. LawlarLF	.667	4	1	3	1	1	0	0
I. Vargas1B	.286	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
T. TawaLF	.400	3	2	1	0	0	0	1
R. WaldschmidtCF	.200	3	1	1	2	1	1	2
Ó. MercadoRF	.333	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. FernandezDH	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. LoganC	.667	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
I. Melendez3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Pena2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. Soler3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Owusu-AsieduCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Serretti3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. OrtizOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JosephaCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	5	11	5	2	2	8

Player

.500

.000

.125

.000

.667

.286

.400

.200

.333

.143

.667

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. MorilloRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
J. BurgosRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	3	--
A. MenendezRP	1.1	2	3	3	2	0	--
N. SavinoSP	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	--
L. MercadoRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	--
A. PerezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
W. ParedesSP	0.2	1	2	2	4	0	--
T. MendezRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	8.0	11	9	9	8	8	0

Player

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. DeLauterRF	.500	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. Ramirez3B	.400	3	1	2	4	1	0	0
B. NaylorC	.750	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
G. AriasSS	.400	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. MartinezLF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RodriguezRF	.333	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. KayfusLF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. ChourioCF	.500	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
R. CesariniOF	.000	0	0	0	2	0	1	0
J. Benjamin3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. NunezC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. TolentinoSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Brito2B	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. HalpinCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. IngleC	.500	0	2	0	0	0	1	0
K. HuffC	.000	0	2	0	0	0	2	0
Team		32	9	11	8	1	8	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BibeeSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
M. FestaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
T. HerrinRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	--
K. AllardRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
P. AvilaRP	0.2	4	3	3	0	1	--
W. ThorntonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
T. DenholmP	1.1	2	2	2	1	1	--
Team	9.0	11	5	5	2	8	0

Team

ARI

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

3 sub-models, blended.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs ARI.