Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 23, 2026

FINAL+3ATL

ATL

2-1

107

BAL

1-2-1

Ed Smith Stadium · Sarasota, Florida

4,614 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Shane BazBAL
5.3± 2.8medium

Hits

Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 1.2high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.0high
Matt OlsonATL
1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

BAL

.720

OPS

.718

.715

.311

OBP

.319

▶

.318

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.58

3.41

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.38

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 10 · BAL 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	2	0	0	8	0	0	0	10
BAL	0	0	0	0	3	1	1	2	0	7

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MateoSS	.143	4	1	1	4	1	0	0
D. SmithDH	1.000	2	1	2	1	0	1	0
E. WhiteRF	.500	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
B. GamelRF	.400	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Alvarez Jr.SS	.200	3	1	1	2	0	0	0
D. Keirsey Jr.CF	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. HicklenCF	.250	3	1	1	1	0	0	2
A. SchunkSS	.400	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
C. TrompC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Gil3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Compton1B	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. EspinozaSS	.667	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
E. WorkingerLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. WaddellSS	.400	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. ClohisyCF	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. HartmanOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JarvisSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. LodiseSS	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. CamargoC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	10	13	9	1	2	7

Player

.143

1.000

.500

.400

.200

.000

.250

.400

.000

.000

.500

.667

.000

.400

.500

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. BaumannSP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. SuarezRP	2.0	0	0	0	2	3	--
H. StrattonRP	0.1	2	3	3	0	0	--
E. JosephRP	0.2	1	0	0	2	0	--
I. GallegosRP	1.0	0	1	0	2	0	--
I. HamiltonRP	0.2	2	1	1	2	0	--
J. KroegerRP	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	--
J. WallaceSP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	--
Team	9.0	9	7	6	8	7	0

Player

2.0

2.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

0.2

1.1

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. RutschmanC	.222	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. WardLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
T. O'NeillRF	.500	2	0	0	1	0	1	0
P. Alonso1B	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Mountcastle1B	.333	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. Alexander3B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. BeaversRF	.250	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. VazquezSS	.250	2	1	1	2	0	0	0
M. HandleyC	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
V. HoneycuttCF	1.000	1	2	1	2	1	1	0
G. O'FerrallSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. NoelRF	.500	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
C. CowserCF	.143	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. Noda1B	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
We. Wilson3B	.500	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. FabianCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
W. Vasquez3B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	7	9	6	1	8	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PovichSP	2.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
K. AkinRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	--
R. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. EspadaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
E. ParedesRP	0.1	2	3	3	1	1	--
C. AchenRP	0.0	4	5	4	0	0	--
C. MarshRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	--
J. WalkerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
E. TorresRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
J. HenriquezSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
Team	9.0	13	10	9	2	7	0

Team

ATL

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs ATL.