Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 22, 2026

FINAL+6SEA

SEA

2-1

148

CIN

0-2

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

6,788 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium

Hits

Julio RodriguezSEA
1.1± 0.7high
Edwin ArroyoCIN
1.0± 1.3high
Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Sal StewartCIN
1.8± 1.8high
Cole YoungSEA
1.8± 2.8high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
1.5± 2.1high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.5± 1.0high
Spencer SteerCIN
0.5± 1.1high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
2.9± 3.0low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 2.0medium
Rhett LowderCIN
2.8± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

CIN

.695

OPS

.718

.698

.312

OBP

.319

.309

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.23

3.69

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.62

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 14 · CIN 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	1	0	0	1	3	0	2	1	6	14
CIN	0	5	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	8

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. RaleyRF	.750	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. RaleighC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. RodriguezCF	.600	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.167	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. ArozarenaLF	.400	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
D. CanzoneDH	.400	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
M. ArroyoSS	.500	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
Wi. Wilson3B	.600	2	1	2	1	0	1	0
B. Rodden2B	.600	3	0	2	2	0	0	1
J. FarmeloOF	.333	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
N. RaposoC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CaronC	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. StevensonC	.000	2	2	0	0	0	1	1
C. Taylor1B	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
V. LabradaCF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. Pagliarini3B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. SundstromOF	.250	1	2	1	2	0	1	0
B. DavisCF	.500	1	2	1	3	1	2	0
B. RambuschOF	.250	2	0	1	2	0	1	1
L. Suisbel1B	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
F. CelestenSS	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		43	14	17	14	1	10	12

Player

.750

.000

.600

.167

.400

.400

.500

.600

.600

.333

.000

1.000

.000

.500

.000

.000

.250

.500

.250

.333

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. DobnakRP	1.1	7	5	5	0	1	--
R. HawksP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	--
C. LeguminaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
R. LoutosRP	0.1	4	3	3	0	0	--
M. PerezSP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	--
R. OrtizSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
C. WilcoxRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
J. DiazRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
D. GonzalezSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	12	8	8	0	8	0

Player

1.1

0.2

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.500	2	1	1	2	0	0	0
M. McLain2B	.667	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
E. De La CruzSS	.667	3	0	2	2	0	0	0
E. SuarezDH	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. SteerLF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. TrevinoC	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. Hayes3B	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. BledayLF	.667	3	2	2	2	0	0	0
R. HindsRF	.667	2	2	2	0	0	0	0
G. Hampson2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Chavis2B	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. Arroyo2B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. RodriguezLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Toglia1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P.J. HigginsC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Co. BurnsC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. BalcazarSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. CallihanLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. DunnCF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	8	12	8	0	0	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FrancoRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	2	--
N. SandoSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
G. AshcraftRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
B. BurkeRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	--
C. PhillipsRP	0.2	2	3	3	3	0	--
J. GarciaRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	--
T. AntoneRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
L. RichardsonRP	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	--
Z. MaxwellRP	0.2	0	1	1	4	1	--
L. MeyRP	0.2	4	5	5	1	1	--
I. MachucaUN	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	--
Team	9.0	17	14	14	10	12	0

Team

SEA

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs SEA.