San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 20, 2026

FINAL+3SEA

0-1

SEA

1-0

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

9,956 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.2± 3.1medium

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.1± 0.7high
Samad TaylorSD
1.1± 1.2high
Julio RodriguezSEA
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Ty FranceSD
2.0± 3.4high
Manny MachadoSD
1.9± 2.7high
Cole YoungSEA
1.8± 2.8high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.8± 1.8high
Manny MachadoSD
0.7± 1.6high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 2.9low
Bryan WooSEA
2.8± 3.2medium
George KirbySEA
2.8± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

SEA

.666

OPS

.718

▶

.695

.299

OBP

.319

▶

.312

3.88

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.00

3.95

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.69

1.31

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SD 4 · SEA 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	4
SEA	0	2	1	0	0	0	2	2	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. BogaertsSS	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. MerrillCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Machado3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Cronenworth2B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. CastellanosRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. CampusanoC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. France1B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. SchnellRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Acuna3B	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. BowenRF	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Miranda3B	.667	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
N. Solak1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Dungan2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Sanabria1B	.500	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
R. DuranC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
P. ReyesOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. TaylorLF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	8	4	2	5	6

Player

.500

.000

.000

.000

.500

.000

.000

.500

.000

.000

.333

.667

.000

.000

.500

.000

.000

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HaynesSP	2.0	4	2	2	0	1	--
J. YeagerRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	--
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
M. MillerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
J. WolfSP	1.2	3	2	2	1	1	--
M. CastroRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	--
G. HawkinsRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	--
Team	8.0	13	7	7	2	8	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.2

0.2

0.2

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. RaleyRF	1.000	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. RaleighC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RodriguezCF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J.P. CrawfordSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. CanzoneDH	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. ArroyoSS	1.000	2	1	2	2	1	0	0
C. EmersonSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FarmeloOF	.500	2	2	1	0	0	1	1
J. PeredaC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. MontesRF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. JoeRF	.500	2	0	1	2	0	0	1
R. ThomasLF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Rivas3B	.500	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
V. LabradaCF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. Mastrobuoni3B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Wi. Wilson3B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		36	7	13	6	2	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DunningRP	1.2	1	0	0	2	1	--
J. KingsburyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
C. CriswellRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
M. RuckerRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	--
T. TaylorRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	--
A. HoppeRP	0.2	1	2	2	2	0	--
J. RuffcornRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
B. CastanoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
N. DavilaRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	--
Team	9.0	8	4	4	5	6	0

Team

SEA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs SD.