Park factor
104 total idx
Fenway Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
LAA
LAA
34-48
PregameMon, 1:35 PM EDT
BOS
BOS
33-46
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketFenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 7/3
TypeRegular Season Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.5%
ensemble · LAA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BOS vs LAA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 86 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Reid DetmersLAA6.7± 3.8medium
- Ranger SuarezBOS6.1± 3.1medium
- Jose SorianoLAA5.6± 1.9medium
Hits
- Donovan WaltonLAA1.4± 1.0high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.2± 0.9high
- Wilyer AbreuBOS1.0± 0.7high
Total bases
- Donovan WaltonLAA2.4± 1.7high
- Zach NetoLAA2.3± 2.4high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.8± 1.8high
RBIs
- Donovan WaltonLAA0.8± 1.1high
- Denzer GuzmanLAA0.7± 1.4low
- Jorge SolerLAA0.7± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Ryan JohnsonLAA3.2± 3.6low
- Jose SorianoLAA2.8± 2.2medium
- Reid DetmersLAA2.5± 2.8medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAA
league avg
BOS
.717
OPS
◀
.719
.697
.319
OBP
◀
.319
.313
4.56
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.96
4.63
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.81
1.41
WHIP
1.31
▶1.27
8.9
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.6
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant