Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at ATH?

The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Houston Astros vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 5, 2026

FINAL+2ATH

HOU

6-4

1012

ATH

3-6

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

10,085 attended

Line movement

15 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

ATH no-vig %

45.5%

open 45.5%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
49.2%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.4%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.3%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.5%

Close no-vig

45.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at ATH?: The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

ATH vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
7.0± 2.9low
Gage JumpATH
5.8± 2.8low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.6± 2.6low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.1± 0.8high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.1± 1.0high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Nick KurtzATH
2.1± 2.8high
Jeremy PenaHOU
2.0± 2.9high
Jose AltuveHOU
1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
1.0± 1.7high
Max MuncyATH
0.7± 1.1high
Jacob WilsonATH
0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.4± 2.0medium
Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Aaron CivaleATH
2.9± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

ATH

.726

OPS

.719

▶

.744

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.329

4.48

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.63

4.72

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.96

1.39

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

HOU 10 · ATH 12 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
HOU	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	4	0	1	10
ATH	0	0	0	0	5	0	4	0	0	3	12

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.344	4	2	2	1	0	2	1
Y. AlvarezDH	.400	4	1	1	2	1	2	2
C. CorreaSS	.263	5	2	2	1	0	1	2
C. Walker1B	.324	5	1	1	2	1	1	1
C. SmithRF	.273	5	0	2	3	0	1	1
Y. DiazC	.242	6	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MeyersCF	.233	4	1	2	1	1	1	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.320	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
N. AllenSS	.300	3	2	1	0	0	2	1
B. MatthewsCF	.118	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		40	10	11	10	3	11	11

Player

.344

.400

.263

.324

.273

.242

.233

.320

.300

.118

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. McCullers Jr.SP	4.0	5	3	3	3	4	79
S. OkertRP	0.1	1	2	2	1	0	9
A. BlubaughRP	2.0	5	4	4	2	1	44
C. RoaRP	0.2	2	0	0	1	0	27
B. KingRP	1.2	1	0	0	1	1	23
B. AbreuRP	0.1	2	3	2	1	0	16
Team	9.0	16	12	11	9	6	198

Player

4.0

0.1

2.0

0.2

1.2

0.1

Team

9.0

198

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Kurtz1B	.148	3	1	2	0	0	3	1
S. LangeliersC	.306	6	1	2	0	0	0	0
T. SoderstromLF	.212	4	3	1	3	0	2	1
B. RookerDH	.176	4	2	2	6	2	1	1
J. WilsonSS	.237	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
L. ButlerRF	.200	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. Muncy3B	.314	5	2	2	0	0	0	0
J. McNeil2B	.174	3	1	1	1	0	2	1
C. CortesRF	.500	3	1	2	2	0	1	0
D. ClarkeCF	.190	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		39	12	16	12	2	9	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LopezSP	4.1	3	3	3	5	6	92
J. SternerRP	1.1	2	0	0	1	1	22
J.T. GinnSP	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	27
S. BarlowRP	0.0	2	4	4	2	0	16
M. Leiter Jr.RP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	26
H. HarrisRP	1.1	1	1	0	2	2	21
E. AlvaradoRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8
Team	10.0	11	10	9	11	11	212

Team

HOU

ATH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

ATH vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

ATH vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.