WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+26PHX

JPN

0-2

6086

PHX

2-0

WNBAWed, Apr 29Final

JPN · top performer

Kokoro Tanaka

F · #26

13.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Natasha Mack

F · #4

16.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. YabuF · #37	14	2	1-8	0-4	—	-17	1	0
K. Juna UmezawaF · #24	17	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	-25	2	1
K. TanakaF · #26	19	14	5-6	2-2	2-2	-13	3	2
M. ShiraishiF · #30	18	0	0-4	0-3	0-2	-19	6	0
M. YamamotoG · #23	22	13	4-13	4-10	1-1	-8	2	2
Bench
N. TodoF · #75	20	9	3-7	1-4	2-2	-13	1	0
N. TsunoF · #7	16	7	3-5	1-3	—	-4	0	3
R. OkuyamaF · #16	12	0	0-3	0-3	—	-6	3	0
M. TateyamaF · #19	10	3	1-3	1-2	—	-1	0	2
S. HiguchiF · #74	9	2	0-4	0-2	2-2	-18	0	1
A. AsahinaC · #14	23	4	1-8	0-6	2-3	-1	3	1
N. KonnoG · #2	19	4	2-6	0-4	—	-5	6	2
Team		60	20-68	9-44	11-14		27	14
DNP: A. Hirashita

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BonnerF · #24	23	7	3-9	1-4	—	+9	4	1
A. ThomasF · #25	26	8	2-6	—	4-4	+24	6	9
N. MackF · #4	22	12	5-6	—	2-2	+20	9	1
S. WhitcombG · #33	21	12	3-5	3-5	3-3	+20	1	0
K. CopperG · #2	24	17	6-11	3-6	2-2	+11	3	1
Bench
J. AlleyneF · #28	8	2	1-1	—	—	+6	6	1
A. PrechtelF · #10	9	0	0-4	0-3	—	0	3	1
M. DooganF · #44	4	0	0-4	0-2	—	+7	3	0
A. SheppardG · #17	7	2	—	—	2-2	+8	0	2
K. WilliamsG · #23	16	8	3-7	2-5	—	+8	3	3
L. JensenG · #15	9	2	1-1	—	—	-2	1	0
M. MalyG · #30	13	2	1-4	0-2	—	+6	3	0
S. CiezkiG · #5	8	8	2-4	1-2	3-3	+6	0	3
Q. CarterG · #20	11	6	2-3	—	2-4	+7	1	0
Team		86	29-65	10-29	18-20		43	22
DNP: K. Westbeld, V. Ayayi, N. Brochant, K. Linskens, J. Nared, J. Nogic, L. Kang, K. Dunn, Y. Garzon, M. Akoa Makani

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

JPN

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

20-68

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

29-65

FG %

9-44

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-29

11-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-20

Assists

Turnovers

How it ended

PHX beat JPN 86-60. N. Mack led with 12 PTS, 9 REB, 1 AST. PHX outscored the other side 29-13 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Starters vs bench

production by unit

JPNstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

31 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST

GS 14

Bench(7)

29 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST

GS 18

PHXstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

56 PTS · 23 REB · 12 AST

GS 44

Bench(9)

30 PTS · 20 REB · 10 AST

GS 25

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
JPN	13	15	17	15	60
PHX	29	23	14	20	86

Period scoring

JPN won 1 · PHX won 3

JPN

PHX

Shooting comparison

JPN

PHX

29%

20-68

45%

29-65

20%

9-44

3PT

34%

10-29

79%

11-14

90%

18-20

Play-by-play · 421 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
JPN 60·PHX 86
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
JPN 60·PHX 86
Q4·2.1
Mio Shiraishi bad pass turnover (Aisha Sheppard steals)
·
JPN 60·PHX 86
Q4·4.5
Mio Shiraishi offensive rebound
JPN 60·PHX 86
Q4·4.5
Azusa Asahina misses 24-foot three point jumper
JPN 60·PHX 86
Q4·10.6
Jillian Alleyne bad pass turnover (Norika Konno steals)
·
JPN 60·PHX 86
Q4·26.0
Lauren Jensen defensive rebound
JPN 60·PHX 86
Q4·29.1
Suzuno Higuchi misses driving floating jump shot
JPN 60·PHX 86
Q4·52.6
Aisha Sheppard makes free throw 2 of 2
JPN 60·PHX 86
Q4·52.6
Aisha Sheppard makes free throw 1 of 2
JPN 60·PHX 85
Q4·52.6
Mio Shiraishi personal foul
JPN 60·PHX 84
Q4·56.7
Azusa Asahina vs. Jillian Alleyne (Aisha Sheppard gains possession)
· ·
JPN 60·PHX 84
Q4·56.7
Mercury defensive team rebound
JPN 60·PHX 84
Q4·1:01
Mio Shiraishi misses 26-foot three point jumper
JPN 60·PHX 84
Q4·1:05
Mio Shiraishi defensive rebound
JPN 60·PHX 84
Q4·1:07
Nanami Tsuno blocks Shay Ciezki 's 1-foot driving layup
·
JPN 60·PHX 84
Q4·1:26
Azusa Asahina makes free throw 2 of 2
JPN 60·PHX 84
Q4·1:26
Suzuno Higuchi enters the game for Kokoro Tanaka
·
JPN 59·PHX 84
Q4·1:26
Azusa Asahina makes free throw 1 of 2
JPN 59·PHX 84
Q4·1:26
Aisha Sheppard personal foul
JPN 58·PHX 84
Q4·1:34
Jillian Alleyne makes layup (Shay Ciezki assists)
·
JPN 58·PHX 84
Q4·1:43
Nanami Tsuno makes 25-foot three pointer
JPN 58·PHX 82
Q4·2:00
Shay Ciezki makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aisha Sheppard assists)
·
JPN 55·PHX 82
Q4·2:18
Kokoro Tanaka makes free throw 2 of 2
JPN 55·PHX 79
Q4·2:18
Kokoro Tanaka makes free throw 1 of 2
JPN 54·PHX 79
Q4·2:18
Lauren Jensen shooting foul
JPN 53·PHX 79
Q4·2:32
Shay Ciezki makes free throw 2 of 2
JPN 53·PHX 79
Q4·2:32
Shay Ciezki makes free throw 1 of 2
JPN 53·PHX 78
Q4·2:32
Japan Full timeout
JPN 53·PHX 77
Q4·2:32
Azusa Asahina personal foul
JPN 53·PHX 77

Recap · WNBA

hoenix Mercury held off JAPAN, 86–60. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

JPN

PHX

eFG%

shooting

36.0%

52.3%

TOV%

ball control

14.9%

20.5%

OREB%

offensive glass

27.9%

44.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

16.2%

27.7%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 5 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Alyssa ThomasPHX · F
AST/TO2.389
DeWanna BonnerPHX · F
DRB%.19375

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · JPN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs JPN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

projections · 10 high confidence

Points

Kahleah CopperPHX
19.3± 10.1medium
Alyssa ThomasPHX
12.1± 6.3medium
Monique Akoa MakaniPHX
10.3± 5.8low

Rebounds

Natasha MackPHX
8.3± 3.0high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
6.1± 2.8medium
Kahleah CopperPHX
3.9± 3.0medium

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.6± 2.6medium
Monique Akoa MakaniPHX
2.9± 2.1low
Noemie BrochantPHX
2.2± 3.6medium

Blocks

Natasha MackPHX
1.1± 1.1high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
0.7± 0.9high
Kyara LinskensPHX
0.7± 1.3low

Steals

Monique Akoa MakaniPHX
1.6± 1.0low
Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.4± 1.3medium
Natasha MackPHX
1.0± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · wehoop